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Bookies rate Hillary Clinton presidency a 85 per cent certainty

Thu, Oct 27, 5:15pm by Jake Equid

The presidential debates are over and the long-awaited US Election is now just 11 days away but according to the betting markets, democratic nomination Hillary Clinton can start moving her belongings into the White House.

The final debate which was held in Las Vegas on Thursday October 20 and according to debate watchers that were polled by CNN, Clinton won that and the previous two debates. The election looks to be following the outcome of the debates, a landslide victory for the would-be first lady President.

Moving on to what we know best and the betting markets, two of the most prominent U.K. bookmakers Ladbrokes and Betfair have crunched their numbers and announced that Hillary Clinton has an 85 percent chance of winning the election.

British bookmakers base their odds on how much money they receive: the more money it receives for Clinton to win, the lower the odds.

“Trump’s odds have been drifting like a barge with the bookies in the past few weeks, however it looks like punters are hedging their bets thanks to the big prices on offer,” said Jessica Bridge from Ladbrokes in a press release.

Bridge went on to say though, that the two-horse race that is turning Washington into Hollywood, just like a Hollywood movie, may have a plot twist right at the end.

“At 2/11 ($1.18) Clinton would appear to be safe, but this two-horse race isn’t over yet according to the cash being wagered on both candidates.”

However, it’s not a fool-proof system for predicting political events. Prior to the U.K. referendum on its membership of the European Union, the odds suggested a 76 percent chance of the remain campaign winning the vote.

Betting on the presidential election is proving lucrative. £75 million ($91.6 million) of bets have been placed with Betfair. On Tuesday alone, £1.3 million was placed with the bookmaker.

In a slightly odd twist, 16 percent of the bets placed on Tuesday were for Bernie Sanders, who lost the primary campaign to Clinton. He currently has odds of 259/1 on becoming president.

“In both the 2008 and 2012 elections, the outsiders in the market have been relatively untouched in the betting at this late stage of the presidential race, however Bernie Sanders has seen significant support and accounts for over 16 percent of the bets taken” said Barry Orr, spokesperson for Betfair, said in a press release.

Back home and those considering placing money on the outcome of the U.S. election can get odds of $1.13 with Sportsbet which of course means, the gambler would receive just 13 cents for every dollar they bet.

Unfortunately for rival candidate Donald Trump, the odds of him winning the election are $5.40 according to Sportsbet, though any gamblers backing him would win back their stake five and a half times.

Sportsbet Market:

Hillary Clinton $1.13

Donald Trump $5.40

Winning Party

Democrat $1.16

Republican $5.00

Independent $41.00

Voter Turnout (What will be the percentage voter turnout at the 2016 US presidential election Voter turnout is defined as the percentage of eligible voters who cast a ballot)

54.00 – 57.99% $3.20

58.00 – 61.99% $4.50

50.00 – 53.99% $5.50

49.99% or Less $6.00

62.00 – 65.99 $6.50

66.00% or More $7.00


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