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Raiders target Geelong Cup as path to the big one

Wed, Oct 19, 10:46am by Bren O'Brien

European raiders Oceanographer and Grey Lion are battling for favouritism in Wednesday’s Geelong Cup (2400m) as they look to book their passage to the $6 million Melbourne Cup in 13 days’ time.

Oceanographer, owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie Appleby, has firmed from $4.20 into $3.40 over the past couple of days, while Grey Lion, who opened a clear favourite has moved from $3.40 out to $3.70.

Grey Lion is also having his first start in Australia, with Matt Cumani looking to savour his first major success as a trainer.

Grey Lion needs not only a win but a weight penalty of around 1.5kg if he is to make the Melbourne Cup, while Oceanographer would pass the ballot clause if he won, but would also need a large penalty.

It’s the same story with Oceanographer’s stablemate Qewy, who was $6, but is now $5.

Dunaden and Americain were Geelong Cup winners who went on to win the Melbourne Cup

Chris Waller also has a European import in the race in Kinema, who has midfield in the Ebor at York at his most recent run. Kinema is third pick at $4.60, having shortened from $5 earlier in the week.

The Geelong Cup market was shaken up earlier in the week when Who Shot Thebarman, Arab Dawn and Black Tomahawk were all withdrawn leaving a field of just eight.

It means the top four horses in the market are all having their first start in Australia. Lucques is the shortest price of the locals at $7.

Our pick is Lucques given his good strong local form, but it looks a tough race.

The other race of interest is the Geelong Classic, which is generally a strong guide for the Victoria Derby and Crown Oaks at the Flemington carnival.

Godolphin also have the favourite in this race, with Nemrud at $3.70 in a competitive race. Last start Caulfield winner Theanswermyfriend is $4 along with Adelaide raider Pretty Punk.

Waller has Tumultuous is the race at $8, while the roughie who has been backed is Hollywood Mo, who was $26 on Tuesday but is now $21.

We are going for Theanswermyfriend to back-up from his win at Caulfield to win again here.

Best Bet: Race 6 No.1 Theanswermyfriend at $4

Best Value: Race 7 No.7 Lucques at $7

Tips:

Race 1: 8-2-7-6

Race 2: 1-6-3-7

Race 3: 1-3-9-6

Race 4: 6-8-1-4

Race 5: 7-1-6-9

Race 6: 1-5-2-4

Race 7: 7-10-4-9

Race 8: 1-9-4-10

Race 9: 10-15-16-5


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