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Pakenham Cup Day – Preview and Best Bets

Sat, Dec 3, 9:52am by Bren O'Brien

Pakenham joins the standalone Saturday circuit this weekend, with the inaugural running of the Pakenham Cup with metropolitan meeting status.

Given the Victorian racing industry spent $90 million building the new Pakenham racecourse, and that trainers and jockeys have been lavish in their praise of the grass surface since it opened in March 2015, it isn’t surprising that they’ve been given their chance on centre stage.

The venue is built in Melbourne’s premier growth corridor, albeit over 50km from the CBD and at the moment the course is surrounded by paddocks. It may prove to be a shrewd investment in years to come as houses spring up all around the site, but at the moment, things look a little sparse.

Hopefully, things won’t be sparse on the punting front. Some punters have expressed their reluctance to bet on these country Saturday meetings, but we’re game if you are.
WATCH: Our Preview of Pakenham Cup Day

Our best of the day comes up in Race 6 No.2 Mihany, while our best vale in Race 8 No.1 Burning Front.

Good luck with your investments, and here is our race by race preview

Race 1 O’Connor Hcp – 1000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Wise Hero ($1.75)

2nd:2. Liberty Song ($5.50)

3rd: 8. Divertante ($10)

4th: 4. Invincible Al ($13)

Betting: Wise Hero $1.80-$1.75, Invincible Al $17-$13, Divertante $12-$10

Summary: Not much between the top two here, but have gone for Wise Hero who was impressive last week. Liberty Song will get conditions more to suit here than at Ballarat and is the main threat. Divertante will lead a long way from barrier 1 with a light weight and could prove hard to catch. Invincible Al drops in distance here and will be coming home at them late should he get a comfortable trail.

Confidence: Not a lot of value with Wise Hero. Won’t be taking odds-on. Maybe Divertante each way.

Race 2 Sportsbet Racing Form Hcp – 1200m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. It is Written ($10)

2nd: 5. Smart Dart ($2.90)

3rd: 3. Gallant Harmony ($2.90)

4th: 6. Nordic Empire ($12)

Betting: Bob of the Head $12-$11

Summary: Small field over 1200m flashes danger signs to us. Have gone with the value in It Is Written. Forget the Ballarat run when a lot went wrong on a bias track. Take on the couple of good MV runs plus his trainer has a great strike rate at this track. Smart Dart was also disadvantaged by the track at B’rat and was good there. Gallant Harmony got all the favours in winning that race, but not convinced that will happen again here, while Nordic Empire’s best is up to winning this.

Confidence: Not a lot to be honest. Will back It is Written at the value, but it’s a funny looking race,

Race 3 Viatek Hcp – 1000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Big Reel ($4.80)

2nd: 7. Royal Spinner ($6)

2nd: 11. Abohar ($21)

3rd: 10. Miss Gidget ($19)

4th:  6. A Private Party ($13)

Betting: Big Reel $5.50- $4.80, A Private Party $16-$13, Royal Spinner $8-$6, Tango Rock $6-$4.80

Summary: Another tricky sprint race, but feel Big Reel is going places. The win at MV was excellent and he’ll have plenty of time to get over the top of them here. Abohar is big odds first-up, with the 1000m a much more suitable first assignment than last time when he led up in a strong 1400m race at Flemington. Miss Gidget has good first-up form. A Private Party has been good in two runs this time in and is a third-up winner before.

Confidence: High confidence in Big Reel’s ability and given the right luck, he’ll be right in the finish here.

Race 4 Momentum Gaming Hcp – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. Swiss Kiss ($7)

1st: 5. Cheeky Babe ($4.20)

2nd: 9. Maternal ($7)

3rd: 8. Diamond Baroness ($4.80)

4th: 2. Mossbeat ($15)

Betting: Take Pride $17-$14, Mossbeat $19-$14, Cheeky Babe $4.50-$4.20, Fille Champagne $12-$10.

Summary: Cheeky Babe has been in good form and looks the bnehcmark after running a good race at Ballarat at her most recent run. Maternal won over this track and distance three back and has run two good races since and must be considered while Diamond Baroness is much better suited at this track than leader-biased B’rat at her most recent. Mossbeat doesn’t win much, but is a consistent placegetter and will be clsoe up again.

Confidence: ]Confident that Cheeky Babe can maintain her strong form here.

Race 5 Wise Choice Catering Hcp – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Green Patina ($6.50)

2nd: 4. Gratwick ($8)

3rd: 2. Mr Markou ($16)

3rd: 10. Oak Door ($6.50)

4th: 6. Snitzson ($7)

Betting: Fuse $10-$9, Green Patina $7-$6.50, Ballet Master $15-$11,

Summary: Green Patina was outstanding against the bias at Ballarat and feel she can back that up here. Gratwick may benefit from having a wider barrier, compared to last start and is a chance of turning the tables on Green Patina. Oak Door will enjoy getting out to 1400m for the first time. Snitzson was a big winner at Cranbourne last time and looks to be going places.

Confidence: Highly confident in Green Patina’s ability, She’s a winner and you just can’t stop backing those types of horses.

Race 6 David Bourke Memorial Hcp – 1600m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Mihany ($3.20)

2nd: 1. Kenjorwood ($4.80)

3rd: 5. Petrology ($11)

4th: 4. Sarrasin ($3.80)

4th: 7. Doctor Care ($34)

Betting: Market completely changed on scratching on Sarrasin

Summary: Big fan of Mihany in this race. His form this campaign has been excellent when he has got conditions to suit and this looks entirely suitable with the 2kg claim. Will dictate from the front and prove hard to run down. Kenjorwood is a similarly consistent horse but may need another run to hit his peak. The big track will suit Petrology, who can improve, while Doctor Care could provide some value in the race,

Confidence: Super confident that Mihany has these covered, especially now Sarrasin is out of the race,

Race 7 Pakenham Cup  – 2500m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Pilote D’Essai ($3.50)

2nd: 6. Swacadelic ($4.80)

3rd: 5. Lord Van Percy ($9)

4th: 4. Desert Jeuney ($18)

Betting: Lord Van Percy $14-$9, Swacadelic $5.50-$4.80, Thunder Teddington $18-$11

Summary: Good even bunch of stayers here, but backing Pilote D’Essai to go on with it after his win in Ballarat. The step-up in distance shouldn’t be a worry for him and he was dominant there. Swacadelic comes back from a good run when just beaten by Qewy in the Sandown Cup. Is twice a 2500m winner. Lord van Percy couldn’t win from so far back at B’rat but should be closer here and appreciate the step up in distance. Desert Jeuney likes this track and will enjoy getting up in distance as well.

Confidence: Very confident that Pilote D’Essai can banish his reputation as a non-winner and prevail here, while confident that Desert Jeuney is really good value.

Race 8 Vobis Gold Bullion – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Burning Front ($13)

2nd: 3. Dan Zephyr ($9)

3rd: 5. Lucky Liberty ($4)

4th: 8. Septamore ($7)

Betting: Lucky Liberty $4.50-$4, Rewarding Effort $11-$9.50

Summary: Good race this and feel Burning Front is our best value all day. Won this race last year and after third-up into this can win at very nice odds. Dan Zephyr is another horse proven on this race and his win at Ararat two back was very good.  Lucky Liberty is a model of consistency and has to be included while Septamore met a very good one when beaten last time.

Confidence: Highly confident that Burning Front is the best each-way bet all day.

Race 9 Stabil-Line Group Hcp – 2000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Patch Adams ($13)

2nd: 5. Palmera Lad ($5)

3rd: 9. Get The Picture ($5.50)

4th: 6. Tears of Joy ($13)

Betting: Palmera Lad $5.50-$5, Hardern $11-$9.50, Quedoutes $34-$26

Summary: Tough way to finish off, but have found some value again with our old mate Patch Adams. Had no luck last week (bit of a career trait) but feel the big track here will suit him. Palmera Lad smashed them over this track and distance last time and is in very good nick. He’s the major threat. Get The Picture won well last time, and gets a suitable draw and an in-form jockey. Tears of Joy looks better suited at the 2000m where she has a good record. She could improve.

Confidence: Confident that Patch Adams is better value than Palmera Lad, but wary that Weir horses often go back-to-back once they hit winning form. Maybe back both.


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