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Oaks Day – Flemington – Preview, Tips and Best Bets

Wed, Nov 2, 5:51pm by Bren O'Brien

Oaks Day is traditionally Ladies Day, and the third day of the Flemington Carnival.

Yankee Rose goes in to the main race as favourite and little wonder considering she most recently ran third in the Cox Plate behind Winx and Hartnell.

Sportsbet has her at $1.65, and dominating the market despite coming up with a tricky barrier of 13. Harlow Gold is second pick at $8.50, while there has also been support for last start winner Eleanora, who is $9, as well as Sebring Dream ($12).

The two-day back up from Cup day can make it a little hard to keep up with the form, so we’ve done you all of favour and gone through each race to give you some help.

We had a pretty good day, Cup Day, with seven of the ten winners in our top four selections, including the Cup winner Almandin, who paid $12 won the TAB, while we had three winners on top.

We’re hoping for more joy on Thursday, where our Best Bet of the Day is Yankee Rose at $1.60 in the Oaks. Because she’s so short, we’ll give you an extra Best bet in Race 2 No.2, Pilote D’essai, while our best value is Race 1 No.17 Whirlpool.

Race 1 Red Rock Deli Plate – 1700m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 17. Whirlpool ($10)

2nd: 3. Daisy’s Joy ($9)

3rd: 18. Champagne Ready ($6.50)

4th: 9 Honey Cara ($11)

Betting: Whirlpool has been $14 into $10, while Star Patriot has been $71 into $26 and Spanner Head $61 into $34. Sea The Sparkle has been $14 into $7.

Summary: Tough race to kick off and the market moves suggest that there are plenty of chances. Whirpool drops significantly in class into this. Third-up last time she ran a good second in the Adelaide Guineas. Daisy’s Joy comes off a big win at Balaklava last start. Always wary when Tony McEvoy brings one across during the carnival, especially when his Cup winning nephew is on its back. Feel Champagne Ready will appreciate the step in distance as well as the wide expanses of Flemington, while Honey Cara is a Darren Weir mare who won well in the country last start.

Betting Confidence: It’s a tough and open race but confident Whirlpool has the task to be competitive. Double-figure odds appeal.

Race 2 Twitter Trophy – 1800m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Pilote D’essai ($7)

2nd: 3. Cool Chap ($7.50)

3rd: 1. Scherzoso ($19)

4th: 16. Data Point ($4)

Betting: Curragh has been $9 into $8. Cool Chap $9 into $7.50, while Data Point has been steady at $4.

Summary: Some good horses in this on, and have gone for the class Pilote D’essai, who has been very good without winning this campaign. Feel the 1800m is right up his alley and he should get a good run in the race. Cool Chap is a progressive horse who was good second-up in the Sale Cup. Another one who will relish this distance. Scherzoso looks good value after a good first-up run, while the one with huge upside is Data Point, but worried that he doesn’t win enough.

Betting Confidence: Pilote D’essai is getting out to very nice odds and confident an each-way play on him will be a good one.

Race 3 Off The Track Subzero – 1400m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Rock Forthe Ladies ($4.8)

2nd: 5. Powerline ($24)

3rd: 2. Onerous ($7)

4th: 4. Murt The Flirt ($4.20)

Betting: Murt The Flirt opened $5 but is now $4.20. Rock forthe Ladies and Pepperano have both drifted to $5.

Summary: Rock forthe Ladies was an impressive winner last start and should improve into this race. She’s clear top pick. Powerline could improve into this. He’s a really honest galloper at good odds. Onerous has returned in good order with two strong runs. Has won at Flemington before, while Murt The Flirt was very good at Caulfield and must be respected.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident in Rock forthe Ladies, who has a class edge on most of these.

Race 4 3aw Talking Melbourne Mile – 1600m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Refulgent ($6)

2nd: 2. Mihany ($8.50)

3rd: 6. Pay Up Bro ($4.40)

4th: 3. Marwood ($6.50)

Betting: No movement of note in this race as yet.

Summary: A very even bunch of horses, all of whom have recent strong form. Have gone with the ultra consistent Refulgent here. Was a good winner at the Valley and does like Flemington having won three times here.  Mihany was undone by track bias last start and his form before that was very good. Pay Up Bro will relish getting the Flemington but his winning strike rate isn’t great, while Marwood is very honest and consistent performer who must be included.

Betting Confidence: There’s not much between these lot, so you probably have to look for value. Refulgent and Mihany look to represent that, especially if you can get better than $2 a place for them.

 

Race 5 – TCL QUHD TV Stakes – 1800m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 12. Exocet ($2.30)

2nd: 1. Nemrud ($8.50)

3rd: 10. Rockstar Rebel ($7.50)

4th: 4. Anaheim ($10)

Betting: Plenty of love for Exocet, who has been $2.70 into $2.30, Righteous Mate has been $12 into $8.50, while So Poised opened $26 and is now $15.

Summary: Some promising three-year-olds in this, with the filly Exocet a clear top pick. She was good in the Valley, beaten less than a length and just behind subsequent Group 1 winner I am A Star. She’s in really good form. Nemrud didn’t handle the distance rise at Geelong and comes back to 1800m where he is much better suited. Rockstar Rebel is lightly raced but promising and has the Weir polish. Anaheim is super consistent and will be in the finish again, you’d think.

Betting Confidence: Very confident in Exocet here based on her good form last campaign and the fact she finished so close in a G2 race last time. She has class on these.

Race 6 L’Oreal Paris Stakes – 1400m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Takedown ($5.50)

2nd:  9. Federal ($5.50)

3rd: 3. Amovatio ($12)

4th: 13. Rageese ($4)

Betting: Rageese has been well backed from $4.40 into $4. Takedown was $6.50 and is now $5.50.

Summary: This is a very high quality race. Takedown is in great form and off his run last time at Caulfield and win at Randwick before that, is definitely the one to beat. Federal has also been in great form, albeit within winning and you can forgive him at the Valley last time. Amovatio loves Flemington and will improve significantly second-up. He’s super value. Rageese is the favourite but does have to step up in class here. Still have to throw him in though.

Betting Confidence: Confident that Takedown‘s current form is the best in the race. He wins if he brings that here. Also confident that Amovatio is a great each-way bet.

Race 7 Mumm Stakes -1000m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Hellbent ($2.10)

2nd: 1. Terravista ($3)

3rd: 3. Redzel ($9)

4th: 5. General Truce ($34)

Betting: Punters have latched onto Hellbent here and he is $2.20 into $2.10. Terravista has drifted from $2.80 out to $3.

Summary: This looms as a race in two between the very progressive Hellbent and the established champ Terravista. Terravista is a Group 1 winner down the Flemington straight and his other three starts have been places in the Newmarket, Darley and Lightning. He is coming off a six-month break, but his first-up form reads five wins from seven starts. So how can we tip Hellbent? Well go and watch his last start win and you’ll see why. He’s a jet and he’s a jet on the up. Redzel is also very speedy and looks the only one who can cause an upset, while I have memories of General Truce winning this race four years ago. He’s five from ten down the 1000m at Flemington.

Betting Confidence: This will be a great race to watch, but not sure it’s a great race to bet. If you have a strong opinion on either of the two favoured runners winning, then go for it. But I find it hard to split them.

Race 8 – Crown VRC Oaks – 2500m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Yankee Rose ($1.65)

2nd: 5. Eleanora ($9.50)

3rd: 3. Sebring Dream ($12)

4th: 7. Harlow Gold ($8)

Betting: No major moves with Yankee Rose strangling betting a bit. Bella Sorellastra has been $31 into $21.

Summary: Yankee Rose has shown her quality with her win in the Spring Champion and excellent third in the Cox Plate. She has a big class gap on her rivals and her only worry is either bad luck or a complete reluctance to run out the 2500m. Eleanora was dominant at Caulfield, beating subsequent Wakeful winner Tiamo Grace. She’s clear second pick for me. Sebring Dream was good on Saturday, running second in the Wakeful, while Harlow Gold has always looked like the Oaks distance will suit her.

Betting Confidence: Super confident in Yankee Rose, but $1.65 is a super confident price. Maybe look to couple her in exacta, trifectas with Eleanora and get some value.

Race 9 – Crown Resorts Plate – 1100m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Kentucky Miss ($5.50)

2nd: 6. Conchita ($11)

3rd: 4. Spright ($3.30)

4th: 2. Hear the Chant ($17)

Betting: Spright has been $3.80 into $3.30 and clear favourite. Motown Lil has been $26 into $17.

Summary: A tough way to finish the day but we’ll stick with an old favourite of ours here in Kentucky Miss. Has improved with every start and has won at the 1100m at this track before this campaign. Conchita won easily at MV last time and the form behind her is pretty solid based on Tuesday’s results. Spright is going places, but am just a bit suspect of her down the straight, while Hear the Chant was an awesome winner at Caulfield.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident that Kentucky Miss’ previous exposure down the Flemington straight will be a huge bonus for her here. Will be backing her for the win and Conchita each way.


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