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NFL Week 12: Best Bets: Raiders, Broncos and Eagles to win

Mon, Nov 28, 8:15am by Jake Equid

Although we came up short on the multi front last week, we still managed to get a 75% return with three of our four picks saluting.

First up, the Panthers held off the Saints for us on Thursday Night Football, winning a close one 23-20 to keep their playoff chances alive.

The team that let us down was the Eagles, who we had to cover the line of 6.5 points but they lost 26-15 in Seattle. The Redskins beat the Packers for us on Sunday night though and then the Raiders beat the Texans by 27-20 which was just enough to cover our line of six points in Mexico City on Monday Night Football.

Unlike what we’ve seen for every week of the season, except Week Nine, Week Eleven went in favour of the favourites, who won 12 of the 14 games. That figure is the most favoured teams winning in a single week that we’ve seen all season.

Week Twelve sees five teams favoured by at least a touchdown. The biggest underdog of the week are the 49ers ($3.95) who’ve now lost nine games in a row, when they head to Miami ($1.27). The line is at 7.5 for that fixture.

According to the bookies, the match-up between the Jets ($3.85) who travel to New England ($1.28) and the Jaguars ($3.85) who play in Buffalo ($1.28) will be equally tough with the line also set at 7.5 points for both of those games.

Week Twelve kicked off in a big way on Thanksgiving Day with three games being played.

The Lions beat the Vikings in Detroit in a thriller by 16-13 and the Cowboys also had a close one at home against the Redskins but they held on to win 31-26 to extend their winning run to an amazing 10 games.

In the final game of the holiday, we selected the Steelers to beat the Colts by 1-13 points and although we picked the winner, they won by 28-7.

Week 12 is the first time since Week Three that every team will play this weekend. Here are the three best bets for Week Twelve of the 2016 NFL season:

Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland Coliseum, California– Monday November 28, 8:25am AEDT

The Raiders have been one of the surprise packets of the season and will be looking to cement their current standing as the AFC’s number one seed when they host the injury-plagued Panthers.

The betting market has been set and Sportsbet has installed the Panthers as a $2.40 chance to win just their second game on the road this season. The Raiders are $1.60 favourites to win their ninth game of the season and the line is at a field goal.

The reigning NFC champion Panthers, have won three of their last four games after being 1-5 to start the season, the Raiders face a difficult task against the multi-faceted Cam Newton.

The reigning MVP Newton threw for 192 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown to receiver Ted Ginn Jr., to build a 23-3 lead over New Orleans heading into the fourth quarter, only to hold a late Saints rally for a 23-20 win.

Oakland Quarterback Derek Carr rifled three touchdowns, including two in the fourth quarter, to silence the Houston Texans and claim a 27-20 victory on Monday night in Mexico City.

As mentioned, the Panthers haven’t been good on the road this season and this is their first trip to Oakland since 2008. The Panthers are yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, losing all five and I’m backing that to increase to six here.

BEST BET:  Raiders to win: $1.60

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Sports Authority Field, Denver – Monday November 28, 12:30pm

If the season ended today, three AFC West teams would be in the playoffs. On Sunday night, two of those teams will do battle at Sports Authority Field, as the Chiefs will hit the road to take on the Broncos. It is the first of two matchups between the two teams this season and is certain to be a good one.

Sportsbet has the Broncos priced as a $1.52 favourite to exact some revenge for last season with the visitors at $2.61. The line is just over a field goal at 3.5 points.

The two teams are just about even, having both won seven of their first 10 games behind top defences. It’s a game that should come down to the wire, and don’t forget the Chiefs beat the Broncos in Denver last year.

The reason I’m taking the Broncos though is the Chiefs have looked very beatable the past few weeks, they barely beat the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago, and then were beat at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Quarterback Alex Smith has not looked right since suffering that non-concussion in Week Eight.

Denver just continues to roll along, and they should once again be in the playoffs this season. Trevor Siemian is playing serviceable football, and their defence is arguably the best all-around unit in the AFC.  I’m taking the Broncos at home.

BEST BET: Broncos to win: $1.52

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia –Tuesday November 29, 12:30pm AEDT

Facing a massive hole after dropping four straight and five of their last six games, the Green Bay Packers (4-6) will try to salvage their post-season hopes in what’s been an injury-riddled and trying season when they face the similarly plodding Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) in Week 12 Monday night at Lincoln Financial Field.

The Eagles may be 5-5 and languishing in last place in the NFC East but they remain undefeated at home, thus Sportsbet has them as a $1.49 favourite, with the Packers at $2.70. The line is just over a field goal at 3.5 points.

The Packers are currently three games behind first place in the NFC North with six games remaining in the regular season. Unless they turn things around quickly, it will be the first time since 2008 that the Packers would sit out the postseason with All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

It hasn’t been the fault of Rodgers though, it’s been the other side of the ball that’s got them into this predicament and it hasn’t been all their own fault.

They are currently missing both cornerbacks Sam Shields (concussion) and Damarious Randall (groin). Corner Demetri Goodson is out with a left knee issue and safety Kentrell Brice is out with a back injury. Then last week, back-up right guard Don Barclay (shoulder) also went down.

Monday might be the final nail in the coffin for the Packers in 2016. Despite losing five of their last seven games, I’m backing the Eagles to keep their perfect home record intact, where they average 27 points per game.

BEST BET: Eagles to win: $1.49

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $3.62 at Sportsbet

Raiders to win: $1.60

Broncos to win: $1.52

Eagles to win: $1.49

NFL Week Twelve odds:

San Diego Chargers $1.80 (-1.5) @ Houston Texans $2.05 (+1.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars $3.85 (+7.5) @ Buffalo Bills $1.28 (-7.5)

Cincinnati Bengals $2.61 (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens $1.52 (-3.5)

San Francisco 49ers $3.95 (+7.5) @ Miami Dolphins $1.27 (-7.5)

New York Giants $1.35 (-7.0) @ Cleveland Browns $3.33 (+7.0)

Tennessee Titans $1.44 (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears $2.88 (+4.5)

Los Angeles Rams $3.75 (+7.5) @ New Orleans Saints $1.29 (-7.5)

Arizona Cardinals $2.81 (+5.0) @ Atlanta Falcons $1.46 (-5.0)

Seattle Seahawks $1.40 (-6.0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.06 (+6.0)

Carolina Panthers $2.40 (+3.0) @ Oakland Raiders $1.60 (-3.0)

New England Patriots $1.28 (-7.5) @ New York Jets $3.85 (+7.5)

Kansas City Chiefs $2.61 (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos $1.52 (-3.5)

Green Bay Packers $2.70 (+3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles $1.49 (-3.5)

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*

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