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NFL Week 11 – Preview and Best Bets

Sun, Nov 20, 10:46am by Jake Equid

Well, I hope you followed our advice last week when for the second week in a row, our three-leg multi saluted at $7.55 thanks to the Cowboys beating the Steelers and the Giants beating the Bengals on Monday Night Football.

The Sunday Night Game was the pick of the bunch though with the Seahawks winning in New England in what was an absolute classic. It was one of the games of the season and finished with a goal line stand from the Seahawks defence giving the visitors a huge 31-24 win against the Patriots, their first win in New England since 2004.

As we’ve seen for most of the season, Week Ten went in favour of the underdogs with only four favourites winning out of the 14 games. Both the Cowboys and the Seahawks were underdogs that we correctly selected to win.

Onto this week and it looks as though there are a few more mismatches than we saw last week but who knows if that will be the case given the way this season has panned out so far.

Four teams are favoured by more than a touchdown, as some of the league’s bottom-feeders take on top Super Bowl contenders.

Of those matches, perhaps the toughest test will be for Baltimore ($3.75) who travel to Arlington to face the team who now have the best record in the league, Dallas (8-1). The Cowboys will start red-hot favourites at $1.29 and the line is at 7.5 points.

The other teams that are highly favoured are the Giants ($1.28) who host the Bears ($3.85), the Chiefs ($1.31) who host Tampa Bay ($3.60) and the Steelers ($1.30) who head to the still winless Browns ($3.66). All these games have a line of 7.5 points.

The Monday Night game between the Texans and the Raiders will be played at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City, the first time the NFL’s gone to Mexico since 2005.

Arizona and San Francisco squared off in the same venue 11 years ago the Cardinals coming out on top. The Raiders last played abroad in London in 2014, losing to Miami 28-14 in Week 4.

Week Eleven kicked off at lunchtime on Friday AEDT with a crucial NFC South divisional rivalry. The final score was Carolina 23 over New Orleans 20.

Four teams will have the bye this week (Atlanta, Denver, NY Jets, San Diego) and here are the three best bets for Week Eleven of the 2016 NFL season:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

CenturyLink Field, Seattle– 8:25am AEDT Monday November 21

It’s safe to say that the Seahawks have found their stride after knocking off the Patriots on the road last Sunday night. This week’s opponent, the Eagles also had an important victory on the same day though, over Atlanta.

After their sensational win, last week, the Seahawks are highly favoured to continue that form in this one. Sportsbet has them at a short-priced $1.34 favourite with the visiting Eagles at $3.42. The line is what interests me though at 6.5 points.

Seattle’s offensive line held up against New England’s poor pass rush, but that might not be the case against Philadelphia. The Eagles are tied for sixth in the NFL with 25 sacks, and in Week 10 they became the only defence in 2016 that successfully forced quarterback Matt Ryan to have a bad game.

Russell Wilson looks as though he is moving as well as he has this entire season right now after throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns but he comes up against the sixth best defence in the league in this one.

Interestingly, the visiting team has dominated this fixture, the Eagles have a winning record in Seattle, at 5-3, while the Seahawks have won four of the six games played in Philadelphia.

These two teams and with both teams ranking in the league’s top 10 in defence, I’m backing this game to go down to the wire, much like when Seattle hosted Buffalo two weeks ago.

BEST BET:  Eagles to cover the line (6.5): $1.89

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins

FedEx Field, Maryland – 12:30pm Monday November 21

For the second week in a row, the Sunday Night game has the most on the line. Two teams that are battling for a wildcard berth meet in the nation’s capital. For those of you who may have forgotten, the Packers ended the Redskins season with a playoff win last season.

Sportsbet has the Redskins priced as a $1.69 favourite to exact some revenge for last season with the visitors at $2.23. The line is at a field goal.

Those odds look a bit too close for me as the Packers have been horrible on the road this season with their only win coming in the season opener against the lowly Jaguars.

Playing in a much better division than Green Bay, Washington have two fewer losses, and the Redskins have been defeated just once since Week 3. Washington currently hold the sixth and final postseason spot in the NFC, having picked up where they left off last year when they won the NFC East.

Aaron Rodgers is no longer performing like a top quarterback. The Packers have allowed at least 31 points in each of their last four games, which has resulted in three straight defeats. I’m backing the Redskins to extend that run to four.

BEST BET: Redskins to win: $1.69

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City – 12:30pm Tuesday November 22

The first game in Mexico for 11 years is shaping up to be a fascinating contest with the leaders of the AFC South – Houston, taking on the AFC West’s equal top team – Oakland.

The Raiders and their high-flying offence has seen Sportsbet reel them into $1.38 favourites with the Texans at the juicy odds of $3.17. The line is also large at six points.

The Raiders are fresh off the bye and will enter their first game on foreign soil in two years in good shape, winning six of their last seven games, the most recent of which was their biggest of the season, a ten-point victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions.

The Texans are much improved in recent weeks, especially on the defensive side of the ball having only allowed 80 rushing yards against the Jaguars last week and just 58 the week before against the Lions.

That won’t be good enough to keep pace with Derek Carr and the Raiders, who have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. Oakland might not have the home field advantage with the match being played abroad but I’m backing them to win by over the line.

BEST BET: Raiders to win by over six points: $1.95

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all the below for $6.22 at Sportsbet

Eagles to cover the line (6.5): $1.89

Redskins to win: $1.69

Raiders to win by over six points: $1.95

NFL Week Eleven odds:

Baltimore Ravens $3.75 (+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys $1.29 (-7.5)

Chicago Bears $3.85 (+7.5) @ New York Giants $1.28 (-7.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.60 (+7.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs $1.31 (-7.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers $1.30 (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns $3.66 (+7.5)

Tennessee Titans $2.23 (+3.0) @ Indianapolis Colts $1.69 (-3.0)

Arizona Cardinals $2.17 (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings $1.73 (-2.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars $3.17 (+6.5) @ Detroit Lions $1.38 (-6.5)

Buffalo Bills $2.25 (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals $1.68 (-2.5)

Miami Dolphins $1.83 (-1.0) @ Los Angeles Rams $2.02 (+1.0)

Philadelphia Eagles $3.42 (+6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks $1.34 (-6.5)

New England Patriots $1.14 (-13.0) @ San Francisco 49ers $6.15 (+13.0)

Green Bay Packers $2.23 (+3.0) @ Washington Redskins $1.69 (-3.0)

Houston Texans $3.17 (+6.0) @ Oakland Raiders $1.38 (-6.0)

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*

Stay tuned to australiangambling.com.au. Where we will bring you the best bets each and every week of the NFL season.


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