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NFL Best Bets: Week Nine: Raiders, Bills and Colts good value

Sun, Nov 6, 10:28am by Jake Equid

Unlike last week when no team was favoured by a touchdown, we have four games that feature betting lines of at least seven points. There are a few potential blowouts on this weekend’s schedule but after what we’ve seen so far this season, who would know what’s next.

The team that suffered arguably the worst loss in Week Eight is the equal biggest underdog on Sunday. The Jacksonville Jaguars ($3.47) are getting 7.5 points in their game against the Kansas City Chiefs ($1.33), who are on a three-game winning streak. Jacksonville lost to Tennessee by 14 points last Friday AEDT, though they found themselves down 27-0 at halftime.

The Dallas Cowboys ($1.32) are the second biggest road favorites in Week Nine, giving the Cleveland Browns ($3.55) seven points. Dallas has the NFC’s best record, and Cleveland is still looking for their first victory of the season.

Dak Prescott will remain in the starting line-up, and it doesn’t look like the injured Tony Romo will reclaim his job even when he’s finally healthy.

Both the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are favoured by a touchdown at home after they suffered tough road losses to Atlanta and New Orleans respectively. The Packers are surprisingly at the shortest odds of the week ($1.31) against the Colts ($3.60). See below for the full preview.

The Sunday night game is easily the best on the schedule with Denver and Oakland meeting for the first time in 2016. Both teams are tied on top of the AFC West with 6-2 records. See below for the full preview.

Week eight kicked off on Friday morning AEDT when the Falcons travelled to Tampa to play the Buccaneers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan threw for four touchdowns are the Falcons ran out 43-28 winners.

Once again, six teams will have the bye this week (Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Washington) here are the three best bets for week nine of the 2016 NFL season:

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers

Lambeau Field, Green Bay –Monday November 7. 8:25am

The Colts head to Lambeau Field for the first time in eight years and just the second time since 2001 on Sunday for a meeting with the Packers who are 4-3 and in second place in the NFC North.

As you’d expect, Sportsbet has the home team as short-priced favourites at $1.31. The Colts are massive underdogs at $3.60 but the line is what interests me at 7.5 points.

There was some pressure on Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers three weeks ago the quarterback has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the last two games. He seems to have Green Bay’s offence back on track and could be in for another big day in this one.

It won’t be easy for the Packers to defeat the Colts by more than a touchdown though, Green Bay’s only victory by more than seven points came when Matt Barkley was forced to start at quarterback for the Bears.

Andrew Luck will be looking to bounce back from his poor showing last week when the Colts were held to just 14 points, which was the first time his team wasn’t in the game right up until the final minutes.

Green Bay have the edge and are rightfully favorites at home but the betting line might be a little bit too high. I’m backing the Colts to keep it to a relatively close affair.

BEST BET:  Colts to cover the line (7.5): $1.79

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland Coliseum, California – Monday November 7, 12:30pm

A huge Sunday Night game sees the upstart Oakland Raiders (6-2) host defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos (6-2) in a crucial AFC West showdown at Oakland Coliseum. The winner has the right to be called legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The bookies are having trouble splitting these two teams. In the head-to-head market, Sportsbet, has the home team as slight favourites at $1.82 but the Broncos are right in this at $2.03. The line is at a slender, two points.

The Raiders might be ready to return to the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, but they still have issues that will prevent them from beating the league’s top teams. Oakland committed the most penalties in history in Week 8, and they lead the NFL with 10.8 penalties per game.

That will be difficult to overcome against Denver and arguably the league’s best defence. They’ve managed to stay among the AFC’s elite largely thanks to that defence who’ve forced the most turnovers (16) in the league and the most sacks (26), while holding opponents to 17 points a contest, fifth-best in the NFL.

There is one area of that defence that the Raiders could expose though, the Broncos are way back in 25th position against the run, allowing 939 total yards and 4.3 yards per attempt. That could bode well for the Raiders’ improved running game.

With quarterback Derek Carr playing at an MVP level, Oakland’s one victory away from equaling their 7-9 record last season and is well on pace to finish above a 50% winning record for the first time since 2002 which was the last time the Raiders made the playoffs and the Super Bowl.

The spread (line) in Las Vegas is currently at one point, thanks to our friends at http://www.oddsshark.com/ which means the two points on offer here in Australia is good value.

BEST BET: Raiders to win: $1.82

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks

CenturyLink Field, Seattle – Tuesday November 8. 12:30pm

Seattle are still one of the NFC’s best teams and go in as red-hot favourites against Buffalo, who must win to stay in the playoff race after dropping two straight games.

The head-to-head market has the Seahawks as short-priced favourites for this one. Sportsbet have the Seahawks as short as $1.35. The Bills are rank outsiders at $3.35 with the line over a touchdown at seven points.

As there has been for most of the season, once again there is an injury cloud over Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson. The star has had a horror run of injuries so far this campaign including a high ankle sprain against Miami, then a bruised MCL in the third game against the 49ers, and then a pec injury in the sixth game against Arizona.

He is expected to play but Buffalo presents a difficult matchup him, especially if he is playing at below 100% as no team has more sacks than the Bills. That coupled with the home team’s offensive line not playing as well as they have in recent years could spell danger for Wilson.

The Seahawks have allowed two straight 100-yard rushers, and Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy might return from his hamstring injury to have a big game. Seattle’s defence still gives them the edge at home, but Monday’s game might be closer than most expect it to be.

BEST BET: Bills to cover the line (7 points): $1.84

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all of the below for $5.99 at Sportsbet

Colts to cover the line (7.5): $1.79

Raiders to win: $1.82

Bills to cover the line (7 points): $1.84

NFL week nine odds:

Washington Redskins $2.18 (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals $1.72 (-2.5)

Dallas Cowboys $1.32 (-7.0) @ Cleveland Browns $3.55 (+7.0)

Philadelphia Eagles $2.14 (+2.5) @ New York Giants $1.74 (-2.5)

Detroit Lions $3.16 (+6.0) @ Minnesota Vikings $1.38 (-6.0)

New York Jets $2.63 (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins $1.51 (-3.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars $3.47 (+7.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs $1.33 (-7.5)

New Orleans Saints $1.49 (-4.5) @ San Francisco 49ers $2.71 (+4.5)

Carolina Panthers $1.61 (-3.0) @ Los Angeles Rams $2.39 (+3.0)

Tennessee Titans $2.77 (+4.0) @ San Diego Chargers $1.47 (-4.0)

Indianapolis Colts $3.60 (+7.5) @ Green Bay Packers $1.31 (-7.5)

Denver Broncos $2.03 (+2.0) @ Oakland Raiders $1.82 (-2.0)

Buffalo Bills $3.35 (+7.0) @ Seattle Seahawks $1.35 (-7.0)


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