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NFL Best Bets and Tips – Week 5 – Brady’s back, time to invest

Sat, Oct 8, 10:36am by Jake Equid

There have been a lot of upsets in the first four weeks of the 2016 NFL season, but last week we saw that trend fade. In fact, for the first time for the season, the favorites got the better of the underdogs in week four, by eight wins to seven.

Three teams are favored by at least a touchdown in week five, the first of those is the Pittsburgh Steelers who bounced back from their shock loss to the Eagles in week three to trounce the Chiefs 43-14 last Sunday. They are $1.31 to beat the Jets ($3.60).

The other New York team, the Giants ($3.40) face the Green Bay Packers ($1.34) at Lambeau Field who’ve had two weeks to prepare. The Packers are heavily favoured by a full touchdown.

New England ($1.20), who welcome back Tom Brady are the shortest-priced favourite of the week against the Cleveland Browns ($4.75) The line is at a huge 10.5 points. See below for the match preview and best bet.

Three teams remain undefeated (Philadelphia, Denver and Minnesota) and they are all favoured this week. The only remaining winless team is the biggest underdog on the schedule (Cleveland), and two one-win teams are favoured (Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts), according to the latest betting odds.

The fourth week of action began on Friday morning (AEDT) with the Cardinals travelling to San Francisco. The Cardinals saluted by 33 points to 21, scoring 26 second half points to 14 after the scores were level at half-time.

Four teams will have the bye this week (Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans and Seattle), here are the three best bets for Week Five of the 2016 NFL season:

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns

FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Monday October 10, 4:00am AEDT

The winless Browns certainly don’t have luck on their side this season and that is set to continue here when they face the Patriots who are coming off a rare loss and have four-time Super Bowl winning quarterback Tom Brady returning from suspension.

Sportsbet has the Patriots at a very short-priced favourite at $1.20 with the Browns friendless at $4.75. The line is what interests me though at 10.5.

It usually isn’t a good idea to bet on an away team that’s laying more than 10 points, but this is an exception to the rule. Even without Brady in the first four games, New England nearly won multiple games by double-digits, defeating the Texans 27-0 and taking a 28-point lead over the Dolphins that was eventually cut to seven points.

Cleveland are the NFL’s worst team, and when facing the three worst teams on their schedule last year New England won by at least 17 points on every occasion.

The Patriots are out to prove that they are the league’s best team and with Brady back in charge they just may be. Sunday’s game could get ugly for the 0-4 Browns.

BEST BET: Patriots to win by more than 10 points: $2.01

WATCH: Oddsshark’s preview of the Patriots v Browns

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

Ford Field, Detroit –Monday October 10, 4:00am AEDT

The Eagles head to Detroit fresh off a week’s rest and fresh off their best win of the season, a 34-3 thumping of a legitimate Superbowl contender, Pittsburgh. The Lions on the other hand are languishing in last place in the AFC North with a 1-3 record.

Philadelphia are favourite at $1.57 in head-to-head betting with the Lions outsiders at $2.47. The line is at a field goal.

It’s too early to tell if Philadelphia is as good as the NFL’s other two unbeaten teams but it seems pretty clear that they are among the NFC’s best teams.

I don’t expect Detroit to be blown away though as all three of their losses have been by under a touchdown and two of them have been by a field goal or under. There only win came in week one against against the now 1-3 Colts.

By the numbers, Philadelphia look strong, allowing the fewest points per game, and only the Atlanta Falcons score more. Quarterback Carson Wentz looks like the real deal and Philadelphia should have no problem winning in Detroit.

BEST BET: Eagles to win: $1.57

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens, M & T Bank Stadium, Baltimore – Monday October 10, 4:00am AEDT

The Ravens have made a positive start to their campaign, winning their first three games before dropping a heartbreaker to the Raiders in week four. The Redskins sit just one game behind them at 2-2 but have been anything but convincing.

The home side are the clear favourites at $1.50 with the Redskins at $2.67. The line is at four points.

The key difference between these two teams is defence, the Ravens rank first in total defence, and they’ve even surrendered fewer yards than the Packers, who’ve played once fewer game.

The same cannot be said for Washington who are ranked in 28th position. The Redskins have allowed at least 27 points in every game except for the week four victory against the cellar dwelling Browns and even then they still gave up 20.

Baltimore won their first three games by taking advantage of weak competition, and that’s exactly what they’ll do on Sunday. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has been inconsistent in the early going, and he could be in for a long afternoon in Baltimore.

BEST BET: Ravens to win: $1.50

MULTI OF THE WEEK: Combining all of the below for $4.73 at Sportsbet

Patriots by over 10 points: $2.01

Eagles to win: $1.57

Ravens to win $1.50

NFL Week Four odds:

Washington Redskins $2.67 (+4.0) @ Baltimore Ravens $1.50 (-4.0)

Tennessee Titans $2.57 (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins $1.53 (-3.5)

New York Jets $3.60 (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers $1.31 (-7.5)

New England Patriots $1.20 (-10.5) @ Cleveland Browns $4.75 (+10.5)

Houston Texans $3.42 (+6.5) @ Minnesota Vikings $1.34 (-6.5)

Chicago Bears $2.87 (+4.5) @ Indianapolis Colts $1.44 (-4.5)

Philadelphia Eagles $1.57 (-3.0) @ Detroit Lions $2.47 (+3.0)

Atlanta Falcons $2.81 (+4.5) @ Denver Broncos $1.46 (-4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals $1.79 (-1.0) @ Dallas Cowboys $2.07 (+1.0)

San Diego Chargers $2.57 (+3.5) @ Oakland Raiders $1.53 (-3.5)

Buffalo Bills $2.09 (+2.0) @ Los Angeles Rams $1.77 (-2.0)

New York Giants $3.40 (+7.0) @ Green Bay Packers $1.34 (-7.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.48 (+6.5) @ Carolina Panthers $1.33 (-6.5)

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing*

Stay tuned to Where we will bring you the best bets each and every week of the NFL season.

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