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AFL – Team by Team Brownlow Preview – Part 2

Wed, Sep 21, 5:12pm by Bren O'Brien

Welcome to our preview of Team by Team Brownlow Voting for Teams 7-12. We covered the top six teams earlier, Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, GWS, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide and now it’s the turn of West Coast, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Collingwood.

With Paddy Dangerfield such a short-priced favourite, backing on who will top each team’s Brownlow count will be of special interest in 2016, as will multi-ing up multiple teams to get some decent odds.

West Coast:

The Eagles aren’t averse to producing a Brownlow Medal winner, with three winners in the past 12 years, but their best hope this year is Luke Shuey at $51. 2014 winner Matt Priddis at $101, while Andrew Gaff is at the same odds.

It shows you how much of a midfielder’s medal the Brownlow has become that Josh Kennedy, who won the Coleman Medal by kicking more goals in a season than any player since 2009, is considered a $501 chance.

Shuey had his best season in 2016, averaging 26 touches, including more than 20 in all but one game, but only probably had 1-2 clear three vote games. He is not a big vote getter, historically, averaging just seven votes per season for the past three years.

Priddis, who at $1.90, is equal favourite to top West Coast’s vote count, had his poorest year in terms of possession stats in two years. But he is a proven vote getter, collecting 26 votes and the medal in 2014 and then actually polling higher with 28 when beaten by only Nat Fyfe last year.

Gaff had another big season in terms of stats, leading averages with a career high 29.86, including 12 of his 21 games with more than 30 touches. He polled 17 votes last year and should do better this year. He looks the real value at $9 to be the leading Eagle.

Most Brownlow Votes – West Coast:

Matt Priddis $1.90

Luke Shuey $1.90

Andrew Gaff $9

Josh Kennedy $14

Chris Masten $51

Jeremy McGovern $67

Nic Naitanui $67

Mark LeCras $67

Jack Darling $81

Elliot Yeo $81

Dom Sheed $101

West Coast Players – Overall Market:

Luke Shuey $51

Matt Priddis $101

Andrew Gaff $101

Josh Kennedy $501

North Melbourne:

Funny old season from North, who won their first nine and then just three matches from that point before bowing out in the first week of the finals. Ruckman Todd Goldstein was imperious in those opening nine weeks, and rightly is the shortest price of any North player to win the medal at $151, while Daniel Wells is $251 and Brent Harvey and Jack Ziebell $501.

Goldstein not only averaged 37 hit outs a game during that opening nine-match burst, also averaged 16 touches a game, and kicked 12 goals. He is $1.80 to win the most votes for North.

Wells returned to some of his best form as well, averaging 23.11 disposals, the second highest of his career. He did miss four matches, and his best matches ended to be in losses He is $2.75 to be leading vote getter at his club.

Ziebell, with a career-high disposal average of 22.39, was consistent throughout the year and is on the third line of betting at $9, while Harvey could be the value at $14. It’s remarkable to think that a player who is in his 21st season could average 21.5 touches a game and match his career best for goals (36). He had five games with three goals or more, including a career-high six against Melbourne in Round 3.

Most Brownlow Votes – North Melbourne

Todd Goldstein $1.80

Daniel Wells $2.75

Jack Ziebell $6

Jarrad Waite $13

Brent Harvey $14

Ben Cunnington $18

Nick Dal Santo $21

Sam Gibson $21

Andrew Swallow $31

Overall Brownlow Medal

Todd Goldstein $151

Daniel Wells $251

Jack Ziebell $501

Brent Harvey $501  

St Kilda:

The Saints had a greatly improved year, finishing only percentage outside the eight. That was largely on the good work of Jack Steven, who had another career-best season, and lifted the Saints midfield to another level, plus a key forward troika of Nick Riewoldt, Tim Membrey and Josh Bruce who kicked 123 goals between them.

Steven, the captain in waiting, is $51 to become the first Saint since Robert Harvey went back-to-back in 1997-98 to win a Brownlow, while Riewoldt is $201, Leigh Montagna $501 along with Seb Ross.

In terms of the St Kilda count, Steven, who recently collected his third Trevor Barker Medal for best and fairest, is $1.04 to win, with Riewoldt, who has 130 career Brownlow votes, but never more than 17 in a season, next on $8, ahead of Montagna $16 and Ross $34.

Most Brownlow Votes – St Kilda

Jack Steven $1.04

Nick Riewoldt $8

Leigh Montagna $16

Sebastian Ross $34

David Armitage $51

Luke Dunstan $101

Shane Savage $101

Jack Billings $101

Josh Bruce $101

Overall Brownlow Medal

Jack Steven $51

Nick Riewoldt $201

Leigh Montagna $501

Sebastian Ross $501

Port Adelaide:

Port Adelaide’s season never really had any momentum, as the Power failed to put more than two wins together for the year, finishing with just ten wins, their least since 2012.

Robbie Gray was the standout for the Power, averaging 26.26 touches and kicking 24 goals in 19 games. He is $1.02 to be the leading Power vote getter and is $101 to win the medal. He has polled 14 and 13 votes the past two years.

Ollie Wines had a similarly strong year, posting career highs in disposals and clearances to establish himself as an elite midfielder. He is $11 second favourite to win Port’s count and $501 overall, while he is $1.25 to win the Port count without Gray. Travis Boak, who had 37 votes combined over 2014-15, is third pick at $21 to win Port and $4 in the market without Gray.

Most Brownlow Votes Port Adelaide

Robbie Gray $1.02

Oliver Wines $11

Travis Boak $21

Chad Wingard $34

Jackson Trengove $51

Jared Polec $51

Overall Brownlow Medal

Robbie Gray $101

Oliver Wines $501

Travis Boak $501

Melbourne:

Paul Roos’ final year in charge was one of great promise, with the Demons winning 10 games for the first time in a decade and several stars emerging, especially ruckman Max Gawn.

Gawn had an extraordinary year, earning All Australian status, with an average of 42 hitouts and compiling career-highs in almost every category. He is $126 to win the whole thing, but is $1.33 to lead the count for the Demons, very short for a player who has just four Brownlow votes in his career.

Jack Viney put himself into the top flight of midfielders with a breakout season, benefitting from Gawn’s first use of the ball, topping clearances and taking the baton from Nathan Jones. Viney, who has just five career Brownlow votes, is $3.15 second favourite for Melbourne, while he is ineligible for the main award.

The ever consistent Jones is third pick at $11 for Melbourne and $501 overall, and may represent value, while Bernie Vince at $17 in the Dees’ market could also surprise when you consider he polled 14 votes last year,

Most Brownlow Votes – Melbourne

Max Gawn $1.33

Jack Viney $3.15

Nathan Jones $11

Dom Tyson $13

Bernie Vince $18

Jack Watts $23

Jesse Hogan $26

Christian Petracca $101

Overall Brownlow Medal

Max Gawn $126

Nathan Jones $501

Melbourne:

Paul Roos’ final year in charge was one of great promise, with the Demons winning 10 games for the first time in a decade and several stars emerging, especially ruckman Max Gawn.

Gawn had an extraordinary year, earning All Australian status, with an average of 42 hitouts and compiling career-highs in almost every category. He is $126 to win the whole thing, but is $1.33 to lead the count for the Demons, very short for a player who has just four Brownlow votes in his career.

Jack Viney put himself into the top flight of midfielders with a breakout season, benefitting from Gawn’s first use of the ball, topping clearances and taking the baton from Nathan Jones. Viney, who has just five career Brownlow votes, is $3.15 second favourite for Melbourne, while he is ineligible for the main award.

The ever consistent Jones is third pick at $11 for Melbourne and $501 overall, and may represent value, while Bernie Vince at $17 in the Dees’ market could also surprise when you consider he polled 14 votes last year,

Most Brownlow Votes – Melbourne

Max Gawn $1.33

Jack Viney $3.15

Nathan Jones $11

Dom Tyson $13

Bernie Vince $18

Jack Watts $23

Jesse Hogan $26

Christian Petracca $101

Overall Brownlow Medal

Max Gawn $126

Nathan Jones $501

Collingwood:

Much was expected of the Pies’ season, but they never really got things going, losing five of their first seven and eight of their first 12. From that point on, it was a salvage job as Nathan Buckley rebuilt a team with 2017 and onwards on his mind.

In that regard, the first season of Adam Treloar was excellent, as he led the Pies with over 30 possessions a game, as well as in key stats tackles. clearances and inside 50s. He is the shortest price of any Collingwood player at $101 to win the medal, with Scott Pendlebury, who played a varied role, but still had over 28 touches per game for the sixth consecutive season, at $251.

That pair dominate the leading vote getter from Collingwood market, with Treloar at $1.42 and Pendlebury $2.70. Steele Sidebottom, ineligible for the Brownlow, is $21 to win most votes for the Magpies.

Most Brownlow Votes – Collingwood

Adam Treloar $1.42

Scott Pendlebury $2.70

Steele Sidebottom $21

Taylor Adams $101

Brodie Grundy $101

Jack Crisp $101

Overall Brownlow Medal

Adam Treloar $101

Scott Pendlebury $501


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