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Election Day dawns as Hillary remains short-priced favourite

Tue, Nov 8, 4:54pm by Bren O'Brien

It’s officially election day in the United States, with the bookmakers united in their thoughts that Hillary Clinton will be elected as America’s first female president.

Election website ‘electionbettingodds.com‘ has Clinton now as an 81.6 per cent chance of winning the presidency, which when converted to odds of around $1.23 is slightly longer than the price she is with Australian bookmakers.

Donald Trump’s dramatic charge for the presidency appears to have fallen short and he is given just an 18% chance of winning, which converts to odds of $5.50 for the Republican candidate. Sportsbet has Trump at $4.50. He is $4.75 with William Hill, while $5.5 is available on the Betfair exchange.

While there are plenty who will await the final count to be sure of the result, given the stunning upset which occurred during the recent Brexit vote, those looking for value may find themselves combing through the 50 state electoral college markets.

The majority of those markets are lopsided, with Clinton considered a better than 95 per cent chance of winning the electoraal college votes in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York and Vermont in the east as well as Washington, California, Illinois and Hawaii.

Trump has a better than 95 per cent chance in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama,

The two states which are of most interest are North Carolina and Florida.

According to electionbettingodds, North Carolina is 55.6 chance of going to Clinton and 44.4% Trump.

55.8% translates to around $1.80 in Australian odds. With Sportsbet, Clinton is $1.82 to win North Carolina, while Trump is $1.91, which is well under the probability of 44.4 per cent.

In Florida, which is always a key battle ground, Clinton is considered a 66.5% chance of winning, while Trump is 33.5. Sportsbet has the Democrats at $1.39 and the Republicans at $2.80, both well under their odds based on probability.

Suggested Bet: Back the Democrats to win North Carolina at $1.82.


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