Sat, Oct 15, 10:14am by Bren O'Brien
Caulfield Cup day is always one of the highlights of the racing year, with the $3 million 2400m handicap taking centre stage.
There has been a lot of talk this week about the strength of this year’s race and there is no doubt that at the tail-end, it is a little soft, while the relative strength of the international contingent is a little suspect.
But at the top end, Jameka, as an Oaks winner, has plenty of quality and is a deserved $3.50 favourite. Her win in the Naturalism at this track was super impressive and she franked that with an excellent second in the Turnbull Stakes behind Hartnell.
We’ve already had some movement in terms of the race, with Fanatic and Big Memory scratched, before the raceday scratchings of Tarzino and Set Square, while the two emergencies De Little Engine and Venguer Masque get a run. There has also been a significant change of ownership, with Sir Isaac Newton now owned by Lloyd Williams.
The best value in the race is Preferment, who finds himself at $31, despite being a four-time Group 1 winner and having win the Australian Cup and The BMW during his last campaign.
Elsewhere, there are a wealth of betting options and a day like this takes some discipline to come out on top. Our best bet of the day was Seaburge in Race 5, but he was scratched, so it is now Race 2 No.7 Acatour, while Race 3 No.1 Miss Promiscuity is the best value at around $12.
Here’s our full preview:
Race 1 Mypunter.com Plate (1400m)
2nd: 5. Sylpheed ($2)
3rd: 11. Rather Silky ($34)
4th: 1. Tris ($31)
Betting: The favourite Sylpheed has had plenty of love coming in from $2.25 to $2. In contrast, Skylight Glow drifted out from $4 to $4.50. Petition has support from $15 into $14.
Summary: This looks a race in two, with our preference going for the value with Skylight Glow. She’s been very good in top company of late and will appreciate the drop in class. Sylpheed was dominant first-up and should improve into this. Not sure she’s an even money shot from a wide barrier. Feel Rather Silky is good value off her good sixth last time, while Tris is also overs off a troubled run last time
Betting Confidence: Confident that the top two in the market are clearly a cut above. Highly confident that the market has got it wrong and Skylight Glow is good value.
WATCH: Our Preview of the 2016 Caulfield Cup
Race 2 Gothic Stakes (1400m)
1st: 7. Acatour ($2.3)
2nd: 1. Valliano ($21)
3rd: 4. Morton’s Fork ($3.90)
4th: 5. Nikitas ($8)
Betting: Acatour has been well supported all week and is fairly solid at $2.30, Peacock has had friends, coming in from $26 to $17, while Violate was $21 and is now $17.
Summary: Acatour looks a bit slick for these. His win at Rosehill over a decent field was brilliant and he should account for this lot. Valliano drops back is class and looks very healthy odds from a good draw. Morton’s Fork is a classy colt, who has the class to win here, while Nikitas also drops in class and looks well placed.
Betting Confidence: Very confident that Acatour is going places and the $2.30 about him might prove good value when he goes on to be a Group 1 winner later in his career.
Race 3 Alinghi Stakes – (1100m)
1st: 1. Miss Promiscuity ($12)
2nd: 7. Super Cash ($4.40)
3rd: 8. Chloe in Paris ($6.50)
4th: 9. Alucinari ($19)
Betting: Super Cash has been $4.60 into $4.40, while I Love It was as long as $9 and has now shortened into $7.50.
Summary: We think we have found some value here, with Miss Promiscuity, who is a four-time winner at this track and while she has been out-sped in her two races this campaign, we feel she can improve third-up, where she in two wins and a placing from four starts. Super Cash is clearly her main threat of her last-start win. Chloe in Paris drops considerably in class off the Moir and has a good second-up record, while if Alucinari finds her best, the $19 will look great value.
Betting Confidence: It’s a tough and relatively deep race, but very confident Miss Promiscuity improves into this race and that $12 may be the best value you get all day.
Race 4 Ethereal Stakes (2000m)
1st: 2. Sebring Dream ($3.30)
2nd: 1. Moqueen ($5.50)
3rd: 5. Eleanora ($5)
4th: 7. Tiamo Grace ($16)
Betting: Not a great deal of movement, but the favourite Sebring Dream did touch $3.50 and is now $3.30. Kamili, the bottom weight, was $51 and did get into $26.
Summary: There’s been plenty of confidence about Sebring Dream in this race off her good run in the Thousand Guineas. She’s our top pick off that run and the fact she looks like a 2000m horse. Moqueen looked every bit the stayer with her win at Randwick, and is the main rival, while the Kiwi Eleanora had little luck at Flemington and shapes well here. Tiamo Grace is the best of the roughies.
Betting Confidence: Bit of a query about most of these going over the 2000m for the first time, but Sebring Dream should relish the trip and confident the market confidence is right on her
Race 5 Caulfield Classic
1st: 2. Good Standing ($3.90)
2nd: 3. Throssell ($10)
3rd: 14. Waterloo Sunset ($18)
4th: 6. Inference ($6.50)
Betting: The market changed when Seaburge was scratched late Friday. Good Standing was $3.90 but is now $3. Inference is $9 into $6.50. Beach Life has been $41 into $23.
Summary: Good Standing‘s class has him as top pick in this and he should prove too strong. If you forgive Throssell‘s last start and go on his previous run where he beat Seaburge home, he’s a good chance, while Waterloo Sunset is the best of the fillies and is a nice price. Inference‘s form is strong and he is with an in-form stable.
Betting Confidence: Have a degree of confidence on Good Standing, but wouldn’t be totally surprised if there was an upset here.
Race 6 Coongy Cup
1st: 1. It’s Somewhat ($2.60)
2nd: 3. Maurus ($4.80)
3rd: 13. Honorius ($26)
4th: 2. The Cleaner ($12)
Betting: Another race, and another favourite ell-backed with It’s Somewhat in from $3.10 into $2.60. Vanbrugh is the other mover, from $7 into $5.50.
Summary: It’s Somewhat was a dominant winner last time, albeit against a small field but seems well-placed in a race like this. He’s got a great record at the 2000m. Maurus gets back to his right class and can test the favourite here. Feel Honorius can be competitive in this race with a light weight, while The Cleaner will relish being back in this class and will give a great sight.
Betting Confidence: Very confident It’s Somewhat will prove too classy for these. Expecting a bold run from Honorius and feel he’s the best value in the race.
Race 7 – Tristarc Stakes – 1400m
1st: 2. Tycoon Tara ($2.60)
2nd: 6. Danish Twist ($4.60)
3rd: 3. Pearls ($15)
4th: 1. First Seal ($7.50)
Betting: You guessed it, punters have come for the favourite here again, with Tycoon Tara opening a generous $3.30, but now at around $2.60. Danish Twist has been very solid at $4.60.
Summary: Tycoon Tara has continued her good form this campaign in Sydney and she heads back to Melbourne, with the advantage of having won twice at Caulfield before. Her class and form look to be above the rest in this. Danish Twist was unlucky first up, and improves into this. Wide barrier is the negative. Pearls looks the value on her third last start to Tycoon Tara, while First Seal has the class, but not totally convinced with her run in the Golden Pendant.
Betting Confidence: Could be a big day for the favourites. Very confident that if Tycoon Tara brings her best, they won’t be beating her.
Race 8 Caulfield Cup – 2400m
1st: 11. Jameka ($3.50)
2nd: 1. Preferment ($31)
3rd: 12. Real Love ($7)
4th: 6. Sir John Hawkwood ($15)
Betting: There hasn’t been a great deal of movement since markets opened Monday. Jameka is $3.30 out to $3.50, but seems pretty solid at the market. Real Love has been $8 into $7. Sacred Master has had support, in from $21 to $14, while De Little Engine, who now gets a run, has been $81 into $51.
Summary: Jameka’s form looks extremely strong going into this and given that and her record over the distance, she looks to be the benchmark here. She is weighted to run very well. Preferment is outstanding value given he is a four-time Group 1 winner in a supposedly weak Caulfield Cup. We’re expecting sharp improvement from him here. Real Love is a model of consistency, and she was particularly dominant last time. Her most recent performance on this track, when well beaten in the naturalism is some concern, but she rarely runs a bad race. Leaving the internationals out of considerations here. Caulfield is a trick track for those coming from elsewhere, and not convinced about the form of any of them. Have landed with Sir John Hawkwood, the Metropolitan winner, for the fourth pick. He has been in good nick this campaign and should give a very good account of himself.
Betting Confidence: Confident that Jameka is in the best form of any horse in the race and her weight of 52,5kg, means she should be winning. What we are also super confident of is that Preferment is silly odds. If you don’t like backing favourite, take Preferment at the value.
Race 9 Caulfield Sprint – 1100m
1st: 5. Hellbent ($1.95)
2nd: 3. Faatinah ($11)
3rd: 1. Lankan Rupee ($11)
4th: 2. Our Boy Malachi ($5.50)
Betting: Again, the punters have latched onto a favourite and Hellbent has been $2.10 into $1.95. Our Boy Malachi and Wild Rain have both been fairly solid at $5.50.
Summary: You only had to watch Hellbent‘s last run to be super impressed by where he is at this campaign. A repeat of that effort will see him victorious here. Faatinah was disappointing last time but was super impressive first-up. If he brings that form, rather than the last start effort, he’s right in this at good odds. Lankan Rupee is far from out of it, and his best would easily be good enough here. Our Boy Malachi is super consistent and won’t be far away.
Betting Confidence: The market is confident in Hellbent, but don’t think there is much between our top three selections, With that in mind, it might be worth going for value and looking at either Faatinah or Lankan Rupee.
Race 10 Moonga Stakes – 1400m
1st: 12. Voodoo Lad ($3.40)
2nd: 4. Takedown ($3.80)
3rd: 6. Fast n Rocking ($10)
4th: 11 Hopfgarten ($9)
Betting: One of the few races on the day where punters don’t have much of a clue. Voodoo Lad is $3.60 into $3.40, while Lucky Liberty is $23 into $19 and Durendal $15 into $12.
Summary: Voodoo Lad has been brilliant his last three runs and could have easily been a Group 1 winner last time, if he had have had some luck. Think he has the class edge on these. Takedown comes south with some great form and will give Voodoo Lad a run for his money. Fast ‘n’ Rocking is consistent as ever and will threaten (without winning) again, while Hopfgarten will improve off his good first-up run.
Betting Confidence: Fairly confident that Voodoo Lad has the class edge on most of these on his current form. This race looks entirely suitable.
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