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Bookies and pollsters Trumped by stunning US election result

Wed, Nov 9, 5:23pm by Bren O'Brien

Oddsmakers and pollsters have again been left stunned by the results of the US Presidential election with Donald Trump set to secure the presidency in a massive upset over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

The world is coming to grips with the possibility of a Trump presidency with the Republican leading Clinton 238 electoral votes to 215, with bookmakers all but paying out on the result.

Trump needs 270 votes to become president and that is looking increasingly likely as results come in.

Trump, who touched $10 even after polls closed in the US on Tuesday, was $1.02 with Sportsbet and $1.03 with Betfair as of 5pm Wednesday AEDT.

The fluctuations in the markets were barely believable. Clinton had opened the day as $1.22 favourite, and a couple of hours after the first polling booths closed, she shortened into $1.08 when she took the lead in the count for the crucial state of Florida.

But over the course of the next two hours, the market, and the entire political world, was turned on its head as Trump staged an extraordinary comeback.

Within two hours he has gone from a $10 outsider on Betfair to a $1.66 favourite, as key states, including Florida and North Carolina, slipped from Clinton’s grasp.

Clinton is now $55 with Betfair, while she is $12 with Sportsbet, as she confronts a humiliating defeat.

It easily proved the biggest non-sporting betting event in the history of Betfair, with an extraordinary AU$320 million exchanged on the next president market,

That surpassed the $220 million traded on the Brexit result earlier this year and dwarfed the $50 million exchanged on the result of the 2012 US election.

The market fluctuations eerily mirrored that of the Brexit vote in July, where Britons voted to exit the European Union despite pollsters and betting markets predicting otherwise.

The entire nature of political polling has now been called into question after polls indicated Clinton held as much as a four-point lead going into election day.

Bookmakers too will review their methodology after massive amounts were bet on the result, including a substantial wager of 200,0000 pounds by one British punter.

One Australian punter had $8000 on Trump with William Hill in January at odds of $8 after the property tycoon and reality TV celebrity announced he was running for president.

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