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AFL – Team by Team Brownlow Medal Preview – Part 3

Thu, Sep 22, 5:40pm by Jake Equid

Welcome to the third of three team-by-team Brownlow Medal previews ahead of Monday’s count. We’ve covered the top 12 teams, now it’s time for the cellar dwellers, Richmond, Carlton, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions and Essendon.

According to most, it’s going to be Patrick Dangerfield’s night so this year it’s more important than most to dig a little deeper into the exotics to find some value.

Richmond

After two consecutive finals campaigns it was a year to forget for the boys at Tigerland. Dustin Martin ($1.01) is sure to dominate the Tigers count after a brilliant season averaging more than 31 disposals per game. As the money has tumbled in for Dangerfield, Martin’s hopes of winning the whole thing have drifted out to $15. The thing holding him back will be the club’s poor season, where they won only eight games.

Traditionally a player from the winning team gets the three votes but we have seen a slight change to that in recent years with Jobe Watson in 2012 and Gary Ablett Jr in 2013 both winning the honour despite their club not playing finals.

Martin finished seventh last year with 21 votes and his numbers are well up this season so he should pole really well and will feature in my box trifecta bets.

The umpires like skipper Trent Cotchin ($13), he’s polled 95 votes in the past five seasons, Alex Rance had a stellar season down back and deserves to poll well but defenders do not traditionally get the plaudits. He polled a career best eight votes last year.

Most votes for the club:

Dustin Martin $1.01

Trent Cotchin $13

Alex Rance $26

Jack Riewoldt $51

Brett Deledio $101

Anthony Miles $101

Brandon Ellis $101

Shane Edwards $101

Shaun Grigg $101

Richmond Players – Overall Market:

Dustin Martin $15

Trent Cotchin $151

Jack Riewoldt $201

Brett Deledio $501

Carlton

An improved season from the Blues saw them win seven games, up from four the year before and they were much more competitive across the board.

The top vote getter for the club looks like a race in two with Blues young gun Patrick Cripps ($1.85) continuing to improve and the now veteran Bryce Gibbs ($1.90) both having good seasons.

Cripps averaged nearly 27 touches, up from 24 last year when he received six votes. Gibbs only received one vote last year but his numbers are markedly better, up from 20 to 27 disposals. Interestingly his best result is ninth way back in 2009, when he received 15 votes as a 20-year-old.

Most votes for the club:

Patrick Cripps $1.85

Bryce Gibbs $1.90

Kade Simpson $12

Sam Docherty $31

Dale Thomas $101

Marc Murphy $101

Matthew Kreuzer $101

Carlton Players – Overall Market:

Bryce Gibbs $101

Patrick Cripps $101

Kade Simpson $1001

Marc Murphy $1001

Dale Thomas $1001

Gold Coast

All things considered, perhaps the poorest performance of any club this year goes to the Suns. They started with three straight wins but managed only three more for the rest of the campaign.

The favourite for most club votes is tall forward, Tom Lynch ($1.27) who booted 66 goals this year which is a good effort for a club that really struggled. His best result is five votes last year when he booted 43 goals so he should top the club’s count.

On the next line of betting is Gary Ablett who started the season at $6 to win his third medal but after missing eight games with a shoulder injury he is now at $1001. On the club front though he is still the second favourite at $3.75, which sums up the Suns’ season really. He averaged 27 disposals when he was on the park.

Most votes for the club:

Tom Lynch $1.27

Gary Ablett $3.75

Aaron Hall $5

Steven May $34

Dion Prestia $41

Touk Miller $41

Jack Martin $67

Kade Kolodjashnij $67

Matt Rosa $101

Gold Coast Players – Overall Market:

Tom Lynch $501

Gary Ablett $1001

Aaron Hall $1001

Dion Prestia $1001

Fremantle

The Dockers well and truly fell off the edge of the cliff this year. Going from minor-premiers to 16th is a staggering fall that not many saw coming. They did have a horror run with injuries but there was also rumours of player rifts which can be toxic.

A man who can certainly hold his head up high though is Lachie Neale. He played every game, averaging 27 disposals and 4.5 tackles a game. He cannot be beaten in the club votes at $1.01. He is $81 to win the whole thing.

Most votes for the club:

Lachie Neale $1.01

Michael Barlow $21

Michael Walters $21

David Mundy $34

Stephen Hill $34

Hayden Ballantyne $101

Matthew Pavlich $101

Aaron Sandilands $251

Danyle Pearce $251

Fremantle Players – Overall Market:

Lachie Neale $81

David Mundy $251

Michael Walters $501

Michael Barlow $1001

Danyle Pearce $1001

Brisbane Lions

There aren’t too many positives to take out of the Lions season which was not much short of a disaster. They had a horror early season draw, lost 12 games straight at one stage and were largely uncompetitive in front of scarce home crowds.

Tom Rockliff is favourite in the club’s market at $1.25 as he averaged 29 disposals. His best finish is 6th back in 2013 when he polled 21 votes but his output has been slowly on the decline since then. He only received four votes last year.

Dayne Zorko may represent value at $3.40, he averaged over 23 disposals, six tackles and a goal per game. He took home five votes last year and should build on that here.

Most votes for the club:

Tom Rockliff $1.25

Dayne Zorko $3.40

Mitch Robinson $11

Pearce Hanley $11

Stefan Martin $21

Daniel Rich $34

Lewis Taylor $101

Tom Bell $101

Brisbane Lions Players – Overall Market:

Tom Rockliff $1001

Essendon

Unlike the previous two clubs previewed, the Bombers 2016 campaign can undoubtedly be classed as a success. They outperformed the expectactions of many given their suspended superstars and finished off the season on a high, defeating arch-rivals Carlton.

Standing well clear on the top of the Essendon market is best and fairest winner Zach Merrett. The 20-year old is at $1.05 after averaging nearly 30 touches and six tackles a game in a breakout year for the club.

Second favourite is David Zaharakis at $8. He started the season off on fire, averaging 32 disposals across the opening month of the season, including an excellent 34-disposal and one goal game against Geelong in round four. He was tagged heavily after that though and will be looking forward to his teammates returning to the field to relieve some of that pressure.

Most votes for the club:

Zach Merrett $1.05

David Zaharakis $8

Joe Daniher $21

Adam Cooney $67

Brendon Goddard $101

Craig Bird $101

James Kelly $101

Matthew Stokes $101

Essendon Players – Overall Market:

Zach Merrett $251

Joe Daniher $1001

Brownlow Medal Market:

Patrick Dangerfield $1.18

Dustin Martin $15

Luke Parker $18

Marcus Bontempelli $21

Daniel Hannebery $26

Joel Selwood $26

Sam Mitchell $31

Jack Steven $51

Josh Kennedy $51

Luke Shuey $51

Lachie Neale $81

Stay tuned to australiangambling.com.au over the coming days for betting previews including best bets and video previews and as we continue to preview the Brownlow Medal.

Odds sourced Sportsbet and were correct at the time of publishing


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