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Victory hold slight Derby edge, but draw looks a good bet

Fri, Oct 14, 11:07am by Jake Equid

Preview: A-League Round Two: Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

Date and Time: Saturday October 15, 7:50pm AEDT

Venue:  Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

TV: Live on Fox Sports

In the week after Melbourne surrendered its record for the highest ever A-League crowd to Sydney, Etihad Stadium will be at full capacity to see the 20th installment of the Melbourne derby. The huge crowd will be able to say that they were there the night that Australia’s best ever talisman, Tim Cahill made his A-League debut.

Even with the Cahill upfront, City go in as slight underdogs at $2.65. Victory are at $2.45 but the draw looks like a good play at $3.60.

Cahill’s record in derbies is phenomenal, he loves the big stage and scored five goals in the Merseyside derby during his days for Everton. He’s at $2.60 to hit the back of the net in this one and $7 to score the first goal.

WATCH: Our Preview of Week 2 of the A-League

The over/under market may be worth a nibble, it’s currently set at 2.5 goals. In eight of the past nine fixtures between the two Melbourne clubs there’s been at least three goals scored. In the last three games, the ball has been picked out of the net 12 times. The overs look good at $1.62.

For the home side, Marco Rojas will be welcomed back from international duty after scoring for New Zealand against Mexico on Saturday.

A man who will not be playing for not only this match but for a month is star forward James Troisi who picked up a collarbone injury in the draw against Brisbane. No doubt Victory coach Kevin Muscat wouldn’t have minced his words this week when reviewing that match after the 96th equaliser cost his side two points.

City on the other hand, opened their campaign with a solid 1-0 away win in Wellington. A first-half finish from Anthony Caceres proved the difference between the two sides, as City held firm following the sending off goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen with 30 minutes remaining. He’ll miss this week after the straight red.

All the talk in the lead up has been about Cahill’s debut but at the other end of the pitch, Victory forward Besart Berisha will need to be watched closely too. He has enjoyed the big-game atmosphere against City, scoring in four of the past five games between the two sides.

As mentioned, I’m expecting plenty of goals here, Victory had trouble closing out the game last week which could be an issue at the back again here with the likes of Bruno Fornaroli and Cahill providing quality up front for City. I’m taking the draw as my best bet at juicy odds but also it’s worth considering the $1.62 on the over 2.5 goals, as well as the $2.30 about Berisha scoring at any time.

BEST BET: Draw: $3.60

Sportsbet Market:

Match

Victory $2.50

City $2.65

Draw $3.60

Over/Under
Under (2.5 Goals) $2.21
Over (2.5 Goals) $1.62

HT/FT Double 
Victory/Victory $4
Victory/Draw $12

Victory/City $23

Draw/Victory $6

Draw/ Draw $5.50

Draw/ City $6.50

City/ Victory $23

City/ Draw $13

City/ City $4.33

First Goalscorer

B Berisha $6.00

No Goalscorer $11.00

B Fornaroli $5.00

M Rojas $9.00

T Cahill $7.00

F Ben Khalfallah $12.00

N Colazo $11.00

M Austin $12.00

F Brandan $12.00

J Ingham $13.00

B Kamau $13.00

O Bozanic $23.00

N Fitzgerald $13.00

C Valeri $26.00

N Kilkenny $19.00

R Mahazi $26.00

A Caceres $19.00

Alan Baro $34.00

L Brattan $23.00

L Broxham $34.00

M Jakobsen $26.00

D Georgievski $34.00

P Retre $34.00

S Nigro $34.00

O Malik $34.00

J Donachie $41.00

J Rose $34.00

N Ansell $41.00

M Muscat $41.00

Scott Galloway $41.00

C Chapman $41.00

J Geria $51.00

R Tongyik $51.00

Odds sourced from Sportsbet and were correct at time of publishing


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