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Swans the pick to knock off in-form Hawks

Wed, Jul 13, 5:52pm by Staff Writer

Sydney v HawthornThe Swans go in slight favourites in top-of-the-table blockbuster at a sold out SCG

Occasionally when you are writing a preview you need to fabricate some of the build up, the rivalry or the importance of the contest.  This one certainly does not fit into that category.  These clubs are the two most recent to win the ultimate prize, with the Swans’ flag in 2012 preceding a run of three straight by the Hawks.  The premiership market indicates that we’ll see more of the same this year with the Hawks at $4.50 and the Swans at $5 to salute at the post.

The early money has been with Sydney to regain top spot with a win at their fortress, which is the SCG.  Sportsbet has them at $1.68, while the Hawks are at $2.20.

I’m starting to run out of accolades for the Hawthorn Football Club, they are a game clear on top of the ladder and are 11 weeks away from achieving a feat that no club has matched since 1930.  Winning four-straight premierships.  Once again the Hawks have been written off by many but head into this contest on the back of six straight wins. In fact their last loss came in this fixture back in Round 9 at the MCG.

On that occasion it was former Hawk, Buddy Franklin who sealed the win late in the game with two crucial goals.  He’s at $6.50 to kick the first major in this one however the competition’s leading goalkicker averages only 2.5 goals per game against his former club.  It could have been a different story had he kicked more accurately though; he’s at below 50% in front of goal, kicking 15.18 from six contests.

Up the other end of the ground is where the match was won in Round 9 though with the miserly Swans defence giving up only two first-half goals to set up the victory.  In fact that defence has been exceptional all season, which sees it ranked number 1, conceding only 69 points per game.  If the Swans can get the win here they will be in a great position to win the minor premiership, a market where they currently sit on the second line of betting, at $3.75.

I’m leaning towards the Swans to win a close, brutal contest here, as their record at home is formidable.  They’ve won six of seven at the SCG and the loss was from the last kick of the game against the Dogs a fortnight ago.

BEST BET: Sydney to win, which pays $1.68

BEST OUTSIDER: Sydney to win by 1-39 points, which pays $2.25

*All odds provided from Sportsbet and were correct at time of publishing


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