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Swans best value in AFL Top 4 markets

Mon, Jul 11, 3:56pm by Staff Writer

Sydney SwansThe Top 8 looks set but the battle for the double chance is just heating up

History shows us that, with one exception, Adelaide in 1998, you can’t win the premiership from outside the top four.  With seven weeks to go we learnt a lot about who’ll receive the all-important double chance come season’s end.

West Coast finally beat a top eight side in North Melbourne on Sunday while the Giants blew a huge chance against Collingwood.  GWS were the disappointment of the round, blowing a four-goal quarter-time lead and what looked like a ‘cruisy’ run home may not be the case.  History beckons for Hawthorn who’ve now won six straight while the Crows look like they’re timing their run to perfection winning their seventh straight against Carlton at the MCG on Sunday.

If they were to finish top two, then they may not be seen at the MCG again until Grand Final Day.

Having said all of that, I think the most impressive performance of the weekend was way back on Friday night when the underdog Swans got the points in one of the toughest road trips in the game, winning by 38 down at the cattery.  There had been some question marks over their defence but they put that to bed, holding Geelong to their lowest score of the season.

Sportsbet has five teams odds-on to make the first four. The Bulldogs are $1.80, Geelong $1.72, while Adelaide and Sydney have both shortened significantly and are now $1.25 and $1.30 respectively.  Hawthorn, currently a game clear on top, are also $1,25.  On the next line of betting is GWS at $2.50, while West Coast are $5 and North Melbourne, who were top of the ladder a month ago, now $9.

It’s going to be a fascinating run home with the closest top 4 battle seen for many years.  I’m backing Sydney to storm home and finish well and truly inside the top 4 after their brilliant showing against Geelong last Friday.  They play a further four games at the SCG headlined by this Thursday night’s blockbuster against the Hawks.

BEST BET: Sydney to make the Top 4. $1.30

The Run Home:


Rd 17: Sydney Swans (SCG)

Rd 18: Richmond (MCG)

Rd 19: Carlton (Aurora Stadium)

Rd 20: Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 21: North Melbourne (MCG)

Rd 22: West Coast (Domain Stadium)

Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)



Rd 17: Hawthorn (SCG)

Rd 18: Carlton (SCG)

Rd 19: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 20: Port Adelaide (SCG)

Rd 21: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)

Rd 23: Richmond (SCG)



Rd 17: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 18: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)

Rd 19: Essendon (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 20: Brisbane Lions (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 21: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 23: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)


Western Bulldogs:

Rd 17: Gold Coast (Cazalys Stadium)

Rd 18: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 19: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)

Rd 20: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 22: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 23: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)


West Coast:

Rd 17: Carlton (MCG)

Rd 18: Melbourne (Domain Stadium)

Rd 19: Collingwood (MCG)

Rd 20: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 21: GWS (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 22: Hawthorn (Domain Stadium)

Rd 23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)



Rd 17: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)

Rd 18: Adelaide (Simonds Stadium)

Rd 19: Western Bulldogs (Simonds Stadium)

Rd 20: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Richmond (MCG)

Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Rd 23: Melbourne (Simonds Stadium)


Greater Western Sydney:

Rd 17: Brisbane Lions (Gabba)

Rd 18: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

Rd 19: Richmond (Manuka Oval)

Rd 20: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)

Rd 21: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 22: Fremantle (Spotless Stadium)

Rd 23: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)


North Melbourne:

Rd 17: Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 18: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 19: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 20: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)

Rd 21: Hawthorn (MCG)

Rd 22: Sydney Swans (Blundstone Arena)

Rd 23: GWS (Etihad Stadium)

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