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Hung parliament the bet after choatic Federal Election

Mon, Jul 4, 9:34am by Staff Writer

Malcolm TurnbullIt appears it won’t be until mid-week at the earliest when Australia knows who will lead the country for the next three years, with the odds on a hung parliament now at $1.37 with Sportsbet.

Despite being as short as $1.08 in the week leading up to Saturday’s election, the Liberal/National Party Coalition, led by incumbent PM Malcolm Turnbull, saw its sizable majority disappear to a point where it is highly likely it won’t be able to secure the 76 seats required to form a majority government.

The result will come down of the record amount of pre-poll and postal votes which are set to decide several key seats. As it stands on Monday, with counting suspended until Tuesday, the Australian Electoral Commission has the Coalition on 67 seats, the Labor Party on 71 seats, with six crossbenchers. Six seats are yet to be determined.

Should either of the major parties fail to secure a clear majority of 76 seats, then they will rely upon the support of at least some of the crossbench, meaning it will be defined as a hung parliament. That option, which was priced at around $5 in lead lead-up, is now $1.37.

Despite the AEC status indicating the LNP have a significant battle to get into a position to form even a minority government, Sportsbet have the Coalition as $1.20 to have their leader sworn in as Prime Minister.

The markets have a Coalition minority government clear favourite at $2.10 ahead of a Coalition majority at $2.70. A Labor minority government is considered a $5 chance, while a Labor majority government is very much the outsider at $16.

Labor’s Bill Shorten, despite a much better than expected showing on Saturday, is $4.20 to be the next PM to be sworn in.

There is another possibility, that Australians will be back at the polls this year because neither party can guarantee supply. That is priced at $9.

We mooted the possibility of Labor securing a majority of two-party preferred votes last week despite the markets favouring the Coalition to hold that honour. As it stands, Labor leads that battle by just over 42,000 votes. That’s 50.22% of the approximately 10 million votes counted to date.

Those fancying a little more political intrigue can bet on the next leader of either the Labor and Liberal Party. There was plenty of scuttlebutt on Sunday about a possible challenge to Shorten in the likelihood Labor doesn’t win, with veteran campaigner Anthony Albanese now $1.45 to be next Labor leader.

On the other side, there were calls for Turnbull’s head by a few high-profile right-wing commentators. Those thinking that Tony Abbott can resurrect his leadership ambitions and become the Liberal’s next leader can get $2.50.

To borrow a phrase from Turnbull, there’s never been a more exciting (and unpredictable) time to be betting on politics.


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