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Flemington Saturday: Tips and Preview

Fri, Jul 22, 6:24pm by Staff Writer

FlemingtonSaturday sees Melbourne racing move back to headquarters for Recognition Raceday at Flemington. According to the VRC, Recognition Raceday is an opportunity to recognise the contribution of past and current officials, partners, and employees. Good for them!

There has been a bit of rain about Melbourne and as a result the track is a Soft 7. While there could be more wet weather to come, you wouldn’t think it’d slip into the Heavy range.  Rail is out 4m. It was true at the most recent meeting two weeks ago.

Race 1 – Murray Cox Hcp – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

3. Loch Oir ($6.50)

4. Rock’n’rollrock ($6)

2. Casta ($4.80)

6. Highballing ($13)

Betting: Bit of a move for Casta, who has been $6 into $4.80, while a move at odds for Stately Boy, who has firmed form $19 into $15.

Summary: Not a very strong two-year-old race to kick things off. Loch Oir was a good winner on a heavy track at Warrnambool last time and has upside, Rock’n’rollrock looked improved with his win on the Geelong Synthetic, Casta is a last start Mildura winner, while Highballing might be the value.

Betting confidence: Almost impossible to line-up the various form, but confident that an in-form Craig Williams should give Loch Oir every chance from a good barrier each-way

Race 2 – Henry Bolte Hcp – 1800m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1. Kenjorwood ($2.50)

5. Pin Your Hopes ($4)

3. Rhythm To Spare ($11)

2. Onpicalo ($5)

Betting: Zebrinz has been the big go here, backed from $8 into $5.50. Pin Your Hopes also has supporters, backed from $4.60 into $4.

Summary: Six-horse race, four of which met here two weeks ago with just 1.5 lengths between them. The other two met three weeks ago, with 1.1 lengths between them. So even race. Tipping Kenjorwood because he’ll get an easier run here from barrier 1. Pin Your Hopes is in good form. Surely Rhythm To Spare is ready (please), while Onpicalo rarely runs a bad one.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident that Kenjorwood, with an ounce of luck and the weight of his back with the claim, should be winning.

Race 3 – KA Morrison Hcp (BM78)

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

2. Firehouse Rock ($4.40)

1. Straight Jacket ($7.50)

4. Name The Day ($2.35)

5. Triple Gold ($7.50)

Betting: Plenty like Name The Day early, backing him from $2.75 into $2.35. Straight Jacket has friends as well, moving from $9 into $7.50.

Summary: Firehouse Rock doesn’t win often, but is set to atone for an unlucky second last start in a winnable race. Straight Jacket is consistent and should be thereabouts again, Name The Day has more upside than most of these. Triple Gold gets some weight relief for the first time this campaign.

Betting Confidence: Can you ever bet with confidence on a horse which wins two from 26? Firehouse Rock is better than these. Medium confidence he breaks through for win No.3.

Race 4 – Wilson Medic Rising Stars Hcp

Tips (Odds: William Hill)

1. Yulong Baby ($2.90)

3. Daniela Rosa ($2.45)

4. Ma Jones ($5)

7. Savannah Moon ($14)

Betting: Punters have been all over Daniela Rosa, backing her from $3 into $2.40 since Wednesday. Despite that move Yulong Baby has been steady at the $3 mark.

Summary: This is a clear race in two between the mare Yulong Baby and the three-year-old Daniela Rosa. Leaning to Yulong Baby on experience just, but Daniela Rosa looks progressive. Ma Jones is the best of the rest, while Savannah Moon could be value at double figures.

Betting Confidence: Super confident that one of the two favourites will win. Go the better value with Yulong Baby, but take a saver fixed odds quinella with Daniela Rosa.

Race 5 – TAB/ATA trainers Trust Hcp – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

2. Kinshachi ($3.70)

7. Four Sisters ($4.50)

1. Deal With It ($5.50)

5. Syrahbeel ($13)

Betting: Not a lot to report here, Four Sisters has tightened from $4.80 into $4.60, while Syrahbeel has been $14 into $13.

Summary: Tough and open fillies race, but Kinsachi looks the best of them on her good run last time and her two wins and three placings from five starts. Four Sisters has plenty of talent and her trainer is going at around 30% at Flemington this season. Deal With It has won two straight and you know Weir horse hold form better than any others, while the penny seems to have dropped with Syrahbeel.

Betting Confidence: It’s a very even race and not one which you’d be confident picking out one horse. Maybe a box-tri with the four numbers suggested and a bet each way on Syrahbeel.

Race 6 – Bruce Gadsden Hcp – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

2. Voodoo Lad ($1.85)

6. Nicoscene ($21)

4. Smackdown ($46)

8. Rich Jack ($7.50)

Betting: Voodoo Lad opened too short and as a result has drifted from $1.75 out to $1.90. Bon Rocket has been $9.50 into $6.50, while Villopoto is $26 into $14.

Summary: Voodoo Lad is the clear top pick, even though he’s been beaten odds-on two out of his past three. Nicoscene is a second-up winner and will improve into this. Giving Smackdown another chance, while Rich Jack is in very good touch.

Betting Confidence: Highly- confident that there’s nothing that can beat Voodoo Lad here. Only bad luck or bad management can get him beat,

Race 7 – Bitalli Hcp – 2500m

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

4. Araldo Junior ($5.50)

2. Bold Sniper ($3.50)

1. Au Revoir ($12)

6. Black Tomahawk ($3.40)

Betting: The Weir pair Black Tomahawk ($4.80 into $3.40) and Backbone ($8.50 into $8) have both had their supporters

Summary: Araldo Junior let us down last time but drops a couple of kilos on that run and should atone here. Bold Sniper is in consistent form, while Au Revoir gets the claim and is best suited over 2500m. Black Tomahawk deserved respect.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident that Araldo Junior is great value here, especially if you can get the money-back the place. Sneaky confident that Au Revoir can run a place at good odds here.

Race 8 Flemington Event Staff Hcp – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

3. Royal Rapture ($17)

12. Jerilderie Letter ($2.75)

11. Volcanic Ash ($7.50) 

8. Victory Downs ($6.50)

Betting: Must be some Ned Kelly fans out there because Jerilderie Letter has been backed better than anything else all day from $3.50 into $2.60.

Summary: Going for value here with Royal Rapture who won well at the course and distance two back. Tassie galloper Jerilderie Letter has become a bit of a cult figure this winter and has plenty of talent. We’ll give Volcanic Ash one more chance, while Victory Downs is worth considering as well.

Betting Confidence: Very confident that Royal Rapture is ridiculous odds here. $17 looks outstanding value.

Race 9 – VRC recognition Handicap – 1100m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1. Badajoz ($6)

5. Runson ($5.50)

6. Ability ($3.40)

11. World of Hope ($7)

Betting: Ability opened $4.40 but is now $3.40 after a confident move.

Summary: Badajoz comes south and looks the testing material on his best form. Runson is in winning form and warrants consideration again. Ability comes to this off a recent trial win, while World of Hope loves the 1100m.

Betting Confidence: Always confident that a Godolphin horse switching cities has been well targeted and Badajoz no different. Williams and O’Shea combination inspires confidence s does Willo;s record of 19 winners at headquarters this season.

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