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Early Overs – Caulfield Saturday

Wed, Jun 29, 5:47pm by Staff Writer

Caulfield Winning PostEvery week on, we will do the work for you, and pick out ten horses we believe are well over the odds in the early markets for the feature Melbourne Saturday meeting.

This Saturday racing is at Caulfield where the track was a Soft 6 on Wednesday morning, with around 10mm of rain predicted for Thursday and Friday. The track is likely to stay in the soft range for Saturday’s meeting.

Race 2 No.1 Au Revior – ($31 with William Hill) It’s been a long time between drinks for this guy, but Darren Weir took him to the trials during the week and he gets back to somewhere near his right distance. He is a Group 2 winner over 2400m. There is $40 on offer with some bookies, which seems about 2-3 times the price he should be.

Race 3 No.3 Freshwater Storm – ($26 with William Hill) Relishes Caulfield, where he has won three times, including at his only start over this distance. Excuses last time, was good here two back. $26 seems triple the price he should be.

Race 4 No.9 Ragazzo Del Corsa – ($26 with Sportsbet) His two recent runs at Caulfield were both good, finishing within a length of Divine Mr Artie on both occasions, who will start $5 or so in this race. On that, the $26 about him seems generous despite just one win from 15 starts.

Race 5 No. 1 – Kievann –  ($13 with William Hill) Has come back in very- good form with two strong runs and has won twice third-up in the past. It’s a wide open race, but he should be close to favourite in our opinion, not in double figures as he is.

Race 6 No.3 Royal Island – ($17 with Sportsbet)  Will be hoping for plenty of rain, but he showed on a soft track last time in the feature sprint at Swan Hill, that he doesn’t need it bottomless. In form and the $17 on offer is about 10 points longer than he should be.

Race 7 No. 2 Sempra Libera($41 with Sportsbet)  One poor run down the Flemington straight shouldn’t put you off this filly, who only needs to re-capture her form of 12 months ago to be competitive in this open race. She’s the best $41 chance running around on Saturday.

Race 7 No. 5 Elegant Queen – ($34 with William Hill) Step back from 1400m to 1100m has clearly worried the price assessors, but if you believe that she can carry her good form back 300m from her last four starts then $34 looks good value.

Race 8 No.4 – Plymouth Road – ($10 with Sportsbet) Has improved with every run campaign and was super impressive at Mornington last time over this distance.  Should be close to favourite in our opinion, but you can still get double figures.

Race 9 No. 5 – Catch That Cat – ($34 with Sportsbet)  Last time she was seen at Caulfield over 1200m, she ran fourth to Politeness, Wawail and Bring Me The Maid. ‘Nuff said.

Race 9 No.16 Pilly’s Wish – ($51 with Sportsbet)  She’s got her convictions, but she did win this race 12 months ago. She’s about three times the price she should be.

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