Fri, Jul 15, 6:01pm by Staff Writer
Saturday sees winter Group Racing at Caulfield for the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes. The 1100m weight-for-age race is renowned for being the first sign that Spring is not that far away. Some pretty handy sprinters have won the race over the years, including Group 1 winners Platelet, Super Elegant (twice) and Rubitano.
We’ve got a Good 4 track despite a cold week in Melbourne. The constant wind throughout the week has kept things dry and it actually should be a sunny, still day on Saturday, Rail is out 10m having been out 7m at the previous meeting.
Race 1 – TROA Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap – 1200m
1st: 3: Wazzenme ($4.40)
2nd: 5. Gloriette ($9)
3rd: 1. Hell of an Effort ($13)
4th: 14. Sprung Dancing ($19)
Betting: The fancied runners Sebrikka ($4 into $3.50) and Wazzenme ($4.80 into $4.40) have both met with support since Wednesday. So Si Bon ($8.50 into $7) has also attracted some interest.
Overview: Wazzenme looks a pretty progressive two-year-old who should go close to breaking his maiden in this race on his run last time. Gloriette should have taken improvement from her first campaign and will be competitive. Same can be said for Hell of an Effort, a winner here on Boxing Day. Sprung Dancing looks the value.
Betting Confidence: Hard to ever be completely confident in this type of race but medium confident that Wazzenme can salute here.
Race 2 ACJC Racing 101 HCP – 1200m
1st: 2, Lady Esprit ($4.20)
2nd: 3. Majestic Lass ($3.80)
3rd: 1. Fireworks ($9)
4th: 4. Anatola ($4.80)
Betting: Majestic Lass has secured some support, moving from $4.20 into $3.80, while Anatola is $5 into $4.6. Some push for Stylemaker ($15 into $13).
Overview: Battle in two here between Lady Esprit, who has made good progress in two runs this campaign and Majestic Lass, coming off a win on the Geelong synthetic. Favouring Lady Esprit just over Majestic Lass. Fireworks was good down the straight last time, while Anatola was only beaten two lengths by Lady Esprit last time.
Betting Confidence: High that Lady Esprit should be winning, with her only threat coming from the improving Majestic Lass.
Race 3 Wilson Medic One Hcp – 2000m
1st 1. Hursley ($4.60)
2nd: 6. Big Quid ($8.50)
3rd: 2. Fearless Raider ($3.10)
4th: 4. Palace Tycoon ($11)
Betting: Fearless Raider has been strongly backed since Wednesday and is now a clear $3.10 favourite. Palace Tycoon has trimmed from $14 into $11.
Overview: Hursley was very good when ridden more forward last time and this shouldn’t be any harder. Big Quid looks a progressive stayer and will relish the step up in trip. Fearless Raider appears to have upside while Palace Tycoon won his only trip over the 2000m.
Betting Confidence: Very confident that Hursley is better than these. Should be winning and winning well.
Race 4 Rockmount Pretraining Handicap 2000m
1st: 1. Longeron ($3.30)
2nd: 6. Bondeiger ($6.50)
3rd: 3. Kapour ($5.50)
4th: 5. Golden Mane ($17)
Betting: Longeron has had plenty of friends already this week, with the opening quote of $3.60 snapped up and he is now $3.30. Au Revoir has shorted from $41 into $21, while so has Gingerboy.
Overview: Longeron has been in terrific form this time in and won by a good space last time, beating five of his rivals here. Bondeiger will improve again second up off a break, while Kapour was good when beaten only by Longeron last time. Golden Mane does like this track and is probably the best value.
Betting Confidence: Punters should have a decent amount of confidence that Longeron will bring his form from his last two wins to this race. The only question is how much Bondeiger can improve.
Race 5 TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Hcp – 1400m
1st: 1. Mr Individual ($3.30)
2nd: 2. Divine Mr Artie ($6)
3rd: 3. Stormcraft ($5.50)
4th: 10 Twisting Typhoon ($7)
Betting: Mr Individual has been $3.60 into $3.30, while there have been moves for a few others as well. Notably Twisting Typhoon who has been $8.50 into $7.
Overview: Mr Individual is the class runner coming off a couple of runs in Group races in Queensland. The market says he’s ready to win. Divine Mr Artie has found one better his last three runs, and should be thereabouts again. Ignore Stormcraft’s last run, he should be competitive here, while Twisting Typhoon is the other threat.
Betting Confidence: The top three in saddlecloth order are all capable of winning. Confident that Divine Mr Artie will run a place at least.
Race 6 National Jockeys Trust Hcp – 1400m
1st: 2 Curragh King ($51)
2nd: 1. So Does He ($7)
3rd: 9. Camdus ($3.90)
4th: 8. Fast Approaching ($17)
Betting: So Does He has been $9 into $7, while the support for the favourite Camdus ($4) has been consistent.
Overview: Curragh King is silly, silly odds for a horse with his record. He’s in great form and could provide a massive upset. So Does He won impressively last time and warrants considerations, as does Camdus who narrowly missed first-up. Fast Approaching loves the Caulfield 1400m.
Betting Confidence: It’s an open race but at $51, you only have to be a little bit confident to have a play on Curragh King.
Race 7 Lucrf Super Supports Jockeys Hcp – 1400m
1st: 3. Duke of Brunswick ($2.80)
2nd: 8. Ulmann ($3.10)
3rd: 9. The New Boy ($12)
4th: 6. Royal Island ($41)
Betting: Majestic Duke has been $26 into $15, while Hosting has also had support at $19 into 15. Duke of Brunswick has drifted from $2.50 out to $2.80.
Overview: Duke of Brunswick is another horse in great winter form and he broke through for a much deserved win last time. Ulmann followed him home in that race and should do again. The New Boy doesn’t know how to run a bad race while Royal Island could be value despite it being a dry track.
Betting confidence: Highly confident that despite the drift in the market, Duke of Brunswick will be winning.
Race 8 PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes – 1100m
1st: 6. Thermal Current ($15)
2nd: 1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking ($3.90)
3rd: 4. General Truce ($34)
4th: 12. Runsati ($16)
Betting: Punters were all over the $4.60 about Fast ‘n’ Rocking and he is now $3.90. Runsati opened $26 and is now $16.
Overview: Not sure what Thermal Current has done wrong to be such big odds ($15) in this race. He won well last time and looks well-placed to be in the hunt again. Fast ‘n’ Rocking is clearly the class of the race, but has only won once in eight first-up tries. There’s nothing wrong with General Truce‘s form, while Runsati‘s form is also excellent and he is ‘silly-good’ value.
Betting Confidence: Hard to be confident in such an open race, but feeling that Thermal Current. General Truce and Runsati will all give you a good run for your money each way.
Race 9 Mypunter,com Hcp – 1200m
1st: 8. Beirut ($3.30)
2nd: 5. Shades of Bella ($18)
3rd: 10. Kansas Sunflower ($8.50)
4th: 2. My Sister Lil ($6)
Betting: Vibrant Rouge was scratched last week but the money has come for her again, $8.50 into $4.80. My Sister Lil has been $8.50 into $6. The scratching of Chiavari changed the market.
Overview: Beirut is shooting for four on end and won by panels last time. She’s clear top pick ahead of Shades of Bella, who should get back to her best here, the consistent Kansas Sunflower and My Sister Lil.
Betting Confidence: Mares sprinting races are often hard to bet with confidence on, but Beirut looks in great form and confident she can win again.
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