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Caulfield Saturday: Preview, Tips and Best Bets

Fri, Aug 12, 8:10pm by Staff Writer

Racing returns to Caulfield for PB Lawrence Stakes Day on Saturday, where the track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 3m.

The PB Lawrence Stakes is always an intriguing pre-Spring taste test and this year is now exception with several highly credentialed gallopers engaged. Topping the market is Mahuta, while Tasmanian warhorse The Cleaner makes his debut for his new stable, Suavito resumes as does Australian Cup runner-up Awesome Rock.

Here are our top four selections for each of the nine races on the card.

Race 1: Anzac Commemoration Hcp (2000m)

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

1st: 4. Hursley ($3.90)

2nd: 2. Bondeiger ($4)

3rd: 6. O’Lonera ($2.70)

4th: 5. Name The Day ($4)

Betting: Bondeiger has been $6 into $4 after a couple of scratching. O’Lonera has been $3.50 to $2.70.

Comment: Hursley has been a bit of a favourite of ours and we’ll be happy to be on him again in this. Gets down in the weights and stays at his favourite distance. Bondeiger is taking time to find his best, but Weir’s horses alaays improve with racing and he should be competitive here. O’Lonera has been excellent his last two and will be thereabouts again, while the Name The Day is in good form.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident that Hursley, given the right run, will be right in the finish here. The odds make him an attractive play.

Race 2: Legacy 2016 Badge Appeal Hcp (1600m)

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

1st: 1. Rustic Melody ($6)

2nd: 6. Arianne ($19)

3rd: 9. Winta Chiller ($8.50)

4th: 2. Niminypiminy ($11)

Betting: Kaniana has been well-supported from $3.30 into $2.90 and clear favouritism.

Comment: Rustic Melody comes south and may well have a class edge on the rest of these and could prove too good. Arianne has an excellent second-up record and a good record over 1600m. Winta Chiller just keeps running place and is on the quick back-up, while we are giving Niminypiminy another chance,

Betting Confidence: Confident Rustic Melody‘s best should measure up to these and she’s good odds, as is Arianne, who looks well overs.

Race 3: Beveridge Williams Hcp (1600m)

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

1st: 1. By The Grace ($9.5)

2nd: 6. Chivalry ($7.50)

3rd: 4. Leica Day ($2.60)

4th: 8. Volcanic Ash ($6)

Betting: Sadaqa has been the medium of good support, shifting in from $11 into $7.50. Leica Day is clear $2.60 favourite, having opened at $3.20.

Comment: By The Grace goes up in weight and down in class and could prove the testing material in this. Chivalry doesn’t win many but gets into a race which looks suitable. Leica Day was great first up and should improve again, while Volcanic Ash is always thereabouts.

Betting Confidence: Hard to have a lot of confidence given the differing form-lines, but By the Grace has class and is a good each-way bet.

Race 4: MRC Foundations Hcp (1100m)

Tips: (Odds: William Hill)

1st: 3. Glenbawn Dame ($5.50)

2nd: 8. Ocean Embers ($3.20)

3rd: 5. Chiavari  ($7.50)

4th: 4. Awasita ($8.50)

Betting: Ocean Embers was $4 at one stage this week but is now a firm $3.20 favourite, Mossin Around ($6 into $4.40) and Chiavari ($11 into $7.50) have also had support.

Comment: Glenbawn Dame has been in great nick up north and is due a breakthrough win here. Craig Williams is a huge plus. Ocean Embers won here two back and was stiff not to prevail in Listed company in Adelaide last time. Chiavari‘s recent form is very consistent, while Awasita beat Glenbawn Dame last time, so is highly considered in this.

Betting Confidence: Really interesting race with so many in-form mares. Confident that if Glenbawn Dame handles Caulfield, she should prove too good.     

Race 5: Ks Environmental Vain Stakes (1100m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Russian Revolution ($1.90)

2nd: 8. Wazzenme ($16)

3rd: 6. Artie Dee Two ($5)

4th: 4. Highland Beat ($10)

Betting: Punters have launched into Russian Revolution and after opening around $2.50, he is now $1.90. First starter Zanahary has been $26 into $15.

Comment: Russian Revolution has been all the rage all week and little wonder. He has the best form and the best preparation coming into this. Hard to toss. Wazzenme was a good second last time and the third horse franked that form by winning during the week. Artie Dee Two is unbeaten in two starts and looks to be handy while Highland Beat has plenty of Caulfield experience and a second behind Extreme Choice on his resume.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident given his form, class and the betting moves for him, that Russian Revolution just wins this.

Race 6: Winslow Group Quezette Stakes (1100m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Sword of Light ($8)

2nd: 7. Modern Wonder ($5.50)

3rd: 1. Concealer ($6.50)

4th: 11. Merriest ($10)

Betting: Concealer has been very well backed from $10 into $6.50, while Leotie has been $12 into $9.

Comment: Big Fan of Sword of Light‘s first-up run. She was excellent against a potential star. Modern Wonder looks to be a very progressive filly. Concealer showed her class last campaign and that has her right in this, while Merriest can improve of her debut campaign which included a Caulfleld win.

Betting Confidence: Inside barrier and an in-form jockey make the $8 about Sword of Light look very appealing. Confident that she’s a big shot.

Race 7: PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 11. Mahuta

2nd: 4. Jacquinot Bay

3rd: 3. Lord of the Sky

4th: 13. Set Square

Betting: Awesome Rock opened around $21 which was silly. He is now $13. Miss Rose De Lago has impressed in her preparations ahead of her firsts-up run and is $7 into $6.50.

Comment: Mahuta is top pick here. First-up run was very, very good and he should take a step up from that. Jacquinot Bay has fitness on his side heading into this. Loved 1400m and is excellent value. Lord of the Sky was dominant first-up and although the 1400m is a stretch, he’ll give you a good sight. Think Set Square is the best value of those resuming.

Betting Confidence: High that should Mahuta take a step forward from his first-up win, he is a class above. Also plenty of confidence that Jacquinot Bay is great value.

Race 8: Regal Roller Stakes (1200m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking ($3)

2nd: 5. Voodoo Lad ($4.20)

3rd: 2. Palentino ($5)

4th: 3. Girl Guide ($4)

Betting: Palentino has unsurprisingly had a lot of support, moving from $7.50 into $5, while Girl Guide has been $6 into $4.

Comment: Really interesting sprint race. Have plonked for Fast ‘n’ Rocking because he looks to have the class and fitness edge on his rivals. Voodoo Lad has been competitive but costly for punters recently. Hard to rule him out. Palentino, fully fit, is a clear top pick, but may benefit from this run, Girl Guide likes Caulfield and this race suits.

Betting confidence: Medium confidence in Fast ‘n’ Rocking, one of these races has got to fall into his lap eventually.

Race 9: Ramleigh Springs Place Hcp (1400m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 6. Mr Individual ($4.40)

2nd: 8. Prince of Babylon ($3.80)

3rd: 19. Downhearted ($9)

4th: 15. Vostok ($6)

Betting: The scratching of Magicus has shaken up markets with Mr Individual $5 into $4.40, Prince of Brooklyn $4.60 into $3.80 and Downhearted $13 into $9.   

Comment: Big fan of Mr Individual‘s win last time and although he has missed a run since, from an inside barrier, this looks a great race. Prince Of Babylon is ultra consistent and deserves respect. Downhearted gets into a winnable weight range, while Vostok has plenty of upside.

Betting Confidence: Highly confident that Mr Individual runs a very good race here. He’s a nice price and well worth a play.

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