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Caulfield Saturday – Early Overs

Wed, Jul 13, 9:36pm by Staff Writer

Caulfield RacecourseEvery week on australiangambling.com.au, we will do the work for you, and pick out ten horses we believe are well over the odds in the early markets for the feature Melbourne Saturday meeting.

This Saturday racing is at Caulfield, where the track was a Soft 5 on Wednesday. It’s been very cold in Melbourne this week, but there is no further rain expected and it should stay around the same rating for Saturday. The rail is out 10m for the entire circuit.

Race 1 No.14 Sprung Dancing ($16 with Sportsbet) –  Some bookies opened this promising filly as long as $26 but even at $16, Sprung Dancing looks good value. Her run last start was excellent and she looks very likely to improve off that.

Race 2 No.13 Smokin Valentina ($34 with William Hill) – Her run last start first-up was much better than it looked on paper and she should improve into this race. She gets a good draw and a gun lightweight jockey and the odds look very generous.

Race 3 No.1 Hursley ($4.20 with William Hill) – Prevailed after a change of tactics (and apparently some schooling over jumps) last time and he should be the testing material here. We feel he should be closer to $2.50 as opposed to the $4.20 on offer at the moment.

Race 4 No.5 Golden Mane ($15 with Sportsbet) – Very consistent stayer who gets back to his favourite track here where he has one win and three wins from five starts. Back to 20o0m should suit off a five-week freshen. Should be single figures in our books.

Race 5 No.5 Makatiti ($8.50 with William Hill) – Last start winner who is in very good form and gets a chance to go back-t0-back here. Beat six of these home here last time and should be favourite.

Race 6 No.2 Curragh King ($34 with Sportsbet) – This well-travelled country galloper rarely comes to town but off the back of a good run in Adelaide finds himself at Caulfield at start 44. We feel on his best form, he is conceivably a single figure chance in this. Instead, he’s $34.

Race 7 No.9 The New Boy ($12 with William Hill) – Another consistent galloper who doesn’t tend to win a lot, but is always competitive in these types of races. Was fourth here a fortnight ago and won over this track and distance in April. $12 is good each-way value.

Race 8 No.6 Thermal Current ($13 with William Hill)  – Last start winner of the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill, he has since won a trial and comes back to 1100m, a distance he has won twice over before, including in Group 3 company last year. We have him as one of the main chances, the bookies at $14.

Race 8 No. 12 Runsati ($26 with Sportsbet) – Steps up in class but did beat home subsequent Flemington winner Ruettiger last start in an excellent return to the track. Has two wins and a second from three second-up runs. $26 seems huge value.

Race 9 No.5 Shades of Bella ($17 with Sportsbet) – Not a lot went right last time off a 49-day break, but back her to turn things around based on her win two back and her strong record second up off a break. We have her as a $6.50 chance.


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