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AFL Round 14 – Betting Preview

Thu, Jun 23, 3:03pm by Staff Writer

Collingwood v FremantleThere are six matches scheduled for AFL Round 14, including Adelaide hosting North Melbourne, which has already been previewed. That’s the lone game between teams in the top eight, meaning it’ll likely be a rather uneventful weekend of footy.

Five of the six games this weekend have a line above 20 points.

I went 2-1 (+1U) last week on my best bets, bringing the season’s profit up to +4.44U. I wish I had a piece on the Dockers winning straight-up, as they ended up upsetting Port Adelaide.

Collingwood v Fremantle betting tips

When: Friday, June 24th 2016 at 7:40 PM AEST

Where: Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG)

Watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Best Bet: Fremantle Dockers ($2.00) at William Hill

The bookies have Fremantle (3-10) as a small underdog again – this time against Collingwood (4-8). The Magpies are 14th on the ladder, while Fremantle are right behind at 15th on the ladder. Fremantle are on a three-game winning streak after losing their first ten games, while the Magpies have lost three in a row.

Fremantle have won the last three head-to-head games against the Magpies, although last year’s meeting was close (80-73) and could have went either way. The Dockers have stepped it up defensively. They’re allowing 92.1 PPG (13th) on the year, but have only allowed 180 points (60 PPG) during the winning streak.

The main concern with this bet is the Magpies were on bye last week and are rested. However, Fremantle are on bye next week and they’d love nothing more than to go into the week on a good note. The Dockers are the higher scoring team and have been playing better defence – I’ll be betting them at evens.

Richmond v Brisbane betting tips

When: Saturday, June 25th 2016 at 1:40 PM AEST

Where: Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG)

Watch: Fox Footy

Best Bet: Richmond Tigers -40.5 ($1.92) at Sportsbet

Richmond (5-7) are 13th on the table and coming off a bye week, so they have no excuse not to hammer the lowly Brisbane Lions (1-12). The line is big and has been increasing this week, so jump on the -40.5 now, as it may continue going up. Everything points to a dominating win by the Tigers at home.

The Tigers have found form – winning four of their last five matches. The offence has woken up, scoring 100+ points in three of their last five games. Defence has been a problem all season, as the Tigers rank 15th in points allowed (101.3 PPG), but Brisbane only score an average of 76.8 PPG (15th).

Brisbane have lost nine games in a row and eight of them have been blowouts. They’ll just want to get into their Round 15 bye at this point. Richmond have won eight in a row against the Lions as well – the last time Brisbane beat the Tigers was in 2009. Look for Jack Riewoldt to have a big game and the Tigers to cover.

St. Kilda v Geelong betting tips

When: Saturday, June 25th 2016 at 7:25 PM AEST

Where: Etihad Stadium (ES)

Watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy

Best Bet: Geelong Cats by 1-39 ($2.30) at CentreBet

Geelong (10-3) are first on the ladder after winning three consecutive games. St. Kilda (5-7) have won three of their past four matches, but still find themselves 12th on the ladder and out of the playoff picture. The Cats are –33.5 favourites on the line, but I’m betting them in the margin market.

Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are going to hook up early and often in this one. There’s little doubt the Cats will win, but not by 40+ points. The Saints play better footy at home and have won their last three at the Etihad. They’re also coming off a bye week and will have some extra in the tank.

Geelong are undefeated in the last six H2H games against the Saints. The Cats had a five-game winning streak snapped last season, as St. Kilda were able to draw (97-97) at Etihad. This is a game Geelong can easily overlook. The Saints won’t win, but they’ll keep the home crowd interested.

AFL Round 15 odds

*I’ve listed the straight odds and line (Brackets) from WilliamHill.com.au


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