Tue, Aug 2, 12:44pm by Staff Writer
It’s quarter-time and you’ve either forgotten to get on at the start of the match or you reckon you’ve seen something in the first term which has given you the confidence to have another bet on the match.
Option-wise, you can utilise one of the click-to-call services that the corporate bookmakers offer (while you can), or if you are at the game you can always get on at the TAB, providing you are not stuck behind some bozo putting a seven-leg multi on that night’s Serie A action.
It’s worth looking at the overall stats when you are making a decision to bet at quarter time. We like to think the game is never over at quarter time, but stats say that in 2016, only 27.5 per cent of teams which trail at quarter time will go on to win the game.
That’s just 43 games where a team has been able to turn a first-quarter deficit into four premiership points.
The longer-term average is around 30 per cent, meaning despite the close nature of the ladder at the top in this season, those who start well in 2016, generally win.
The percentages drop off even more at half-time, with the amount of teams able to bounce back off a half-time deficit only 14.2 per cent while only 12.5 per cent of teams have performed a three-quarter time comeback.
But back to the quarter-time bet, and there certainly is a pattern of those teams who never lose when in front at quarter time and teams who are more likely to cough up an early lead.
Hawthorn and Geelong have not been beaten when in front in 2016, winning all nine matches when they have led at quarter time. In fact, the Hawks are 60-4 over the past five years when leading after the first term.
North Melbourne (10-1), Western Bulldogs (9-1) and St Kilda (6-1) are all superior front runners.
The team which performs considerably below average considering their relative position on the ladder is West Coast.
They have led at quarter time in 14 of their 18 games to date, the equal best in the competition. However, their last five defeats of 2016 have come when they have led after the first term, including last week against Collingwood.
Confounding any theories that they are suspect after quarter time, is the fact that in the four games they have trailed at quarter time, they have gone onto win three of them.
According to those statistics, the Eagles are actually a better bet when they are behind at quarter time!
But there’s something else at play here. Home ground factor. All three of those ‘comeback’ wins came at Subiaco, while four of their five games where they led only to be overrun came away from home.
What other teams do we need to look out for in terms of coughing up a quarter-time lead? Well Brisbane, Essendon and Fremantle are the three worst teams in the league in that regard, but that’s no surprise.
Port Adelaide and Gold Coast have led at quarter time in 10 of their 18 matches this year and have only managed to win five of those matches, well below the long-term average of roughly 70 per cent of quarter-time leaders going on to win.
What about the comeback teams?
In terms of percentage, West Coast (3 of 4) and Sydney (3 of 4) lead the way, but in terms of number of comeback wins from a quarter-time deficit, it is Hawthorn who leads the way. They are 5-3 this year.
At the other end of the ladder are Essendon, who have not won a game when behind at quarter-time, while Brisbane have won just one of 14.
But it’s Carlton who are probably the surprise under-performers in this area, winning just one of 11 matches when they have trailed after the first quarter. North Melbourne, given their spot in the eight, have also battled when trailing at quarter time, winning just two of seven and those two wins were in the first two rounds.
Try to keep emotion or ‘gut-feel’ out of the equation when assessing if a team can overturn a quarter-time deficit. The general rule is good teams can do it, poor teams can’t.
The interstate/travel split is significant as well. The eight-non Victorian teams in 2016 have lost 35 per cent of matches after they’ve led at quarter time, the Victorian teams just 19 per cent.
Of the 17 times non-Vic times have come back to win, 11 of them they were the home team.
So we’ve found the comeback sweet spot. So if West Coast are up on Collingwood at the MCG at the first change, but you know the Pies can fire back. Well we say get on! What do you mean that already happened?!? Nothing as useless to a punter as hindsight. Maybe next time.
*Stats correct as of Round 19, 2016
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