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2013 AFL Grand Final – Hawthorn V Fremantle Betting

Thu, Sep 26, 12:19pm by Clarinda Campbell

Match: Hawthorn Hawks ($1.68) vs Fremantle Dockers ($2.25) – AFL Grand Final
When/Where: 2:30pm, Saturday 28 September 2013 at the MCG
Bet on Hawks vs Dockers: IASbet.com

Hawks vs DockersIt’s arrived! Greatness is upon us. The 2013 AFL premiership will be decided by Hawthorn and Fremantle this Saturday on the hallowed turf of the MCG.

The Hawks and Dockers meet in circumstances foreshadowing a great story; it’s the competition’s best attacking team vs the competition’s best defensive team. For the Hawks, it’s their second consecutive appearance on the last Saturday in September after falling a heart-breaking 10 points short of the Swans last year. It’s a historic moment for the Dockers who, after 19 years in the AFL, are through to their first ever Grand Final after a sensational transformation under the guidance of Ross Lyon.

In a couple of heart-warming stories, this year’s Grand Final will see brothers Bradley (Hawthorn) and Stephen (Fremantle) Hill go head-to-head. This is the first time in over a century two brothers have competed against each other in the big dance. Fremantle skipper Matthew Pavlich will also appear in his first ever Grand Final after making his debut in 2000. Until last week’s win and what awaits on Saturday, he was the only current day player to have played more than 250 games and not feature in a Grand Final.

Hawthorn has opened up as slight favourites for the match. There is certainly no shortage of betting options for the match with more than 230 markets currently available. Plenty of choices for both the average and adventurous punter.

  • These sides have met 27 times since the Dockers made their AFL debut in 1995. Hawthorn has won 20 and Fremantle has won seven.
  • The Hawks have the wood over the Dockers in recent history, winning their last four encounters by an average margin of more than seven goals.
  • The last time the Dockers beat Hawthorn was back in 2010 in Perth, by 30 points. Ironically, that was also the last time they met in a final.
  • Hawthorn finished the competition as minor premiers with 19 wins and three losses. Fremantle registered 16 wins, five losses and a draw to finish in third spot.
  • The Dockers have conceded more than 100 points just twice this season; one of those matches was against the Hawks. The Brown and Gold conceded 100 points on four occasions throughout the year, but interestingly won three out of those four matches.
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Hawks V Dockers Prediction

Hawthorn Form: The Hawks head in to the Grand Final on the back of six straight victories. It took something special last week for Hawthorn to extradite itself from the jaws of defeat and snatch a stunning five-point victory over the Cats, laying to rest the Kennett Curse. Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Cyril Rioli were all well held and managed just the one goal between them. It doesn’t take a genius to work out those boys will need to step up and play a significant role if the Hawks are to claim their second premiership in six years. Dynamic midfielder Sam Mitchell was a superstar in the preliminary final, amassing 38 disposals and five tackles. Shaun Burgoyne was also a stand-out, bagging three pivotal goals and gathering 24 touches in the process. The Hawks rolled the Swans in week one to gain access to the prelims, but beating the Dockers is by no stretch of the imagination an easy feat.

Fremantle Form: The Dockers are in blistering form, having won seven of their last eight matches, with their best two victories in that stretch no doubt coming in the qualifying and preliminary finals against Geelong and Sydney respectively. They’ll be hoping they’ve saved their best win for Saturday, though. Few gave Fremantle much chance against the Cats in the first week of finals, but the Dockers ignored Geelong’s dominant record at Simonds Stadium and produced a brilliant display of football to hold the Cats to just nine goals. That win gave them a direct route to a home preliminary final as they went on to defeat the reigning premiers in one of their most pressure-filled, relentless and uncompromising performances ever. Nat Fyfe shone with 27 disposals and two goals, while notorious tagger Ryan Crowley did a brilliant job keeping Kieran Jack to just 11 touches (and managing 22 of his own).

Overall: Fremantle is an incredibly structurally sound and disciplined side, while Hawthorn has been the most consistent and arguably the best team this year. Both have the ability to knuckle down when under enormous amounts of pressure, Fremantle maybe more so. Crowley is likely to target Mitchell. Fremantle demonstrated against Geelong and Sydney just how much pressure they can apply, and under the experience of Ross Lyon (three Grand Final appearances), will be hell-bent on not allowing Hawthorn any time or space. The Hawks showed some vulnerability last week, but stood tall when it mattered most. If they can play their precise brand of football and hit short targets to break through the Fremantle pressure, that will go a long way in their pursuit of ultimate glory. My tip: I’m going for the upset and a historic victory to the Dockers.

Head to Head Odds & Tips

Hawks: $1.68
Dockers: $2.25

My money is on the Dockers, and at $2.25 I reckon that’s great value. If you think the Hawks can get the job done, $1.68 odds aren’t half bad either.

Margin Bets

Hawks 1-39: $2.20
Hawks 40+: $5.20
Dockers 1-39: $2.60 with IASbet.com
Dockers 40+: $11.00
Draw: $31.00

You’d have to be a brave punter to predict a blow out here. Most believe this clash will come down to the extremely thin and narrow wire. So the Dockers by 1-39 looks enticing at $2.60 for me, but again if you fancy the Hawks, $2.20 for a victory by 1-39 points is attractive.

Line Betting

Hawks -7.5: $1.92
Dockers: +7.5: $1.92 with IASbet.com

A very skinny handicap on offer in this market due to the tight nature of the contest. The Dockers have been allocated a seven-and-a-half-point head start and this is where I’d be putting my cash. We’d all love a close decider and if the result is determined by less than a kick either way, you’ll win your bet.

Most Possessions & First Goal-Kicker

Fyfe looks set to have a big day out and is at $5 to grab the most possessions. Mitchell is currently at $4 and if you think he can break the Crowley tag, this might be the way to go. Others who are tipped to find a heap of the leather include Michael Barlow ($4.25), Brad Sewell ($5) and David Mundy ($6). If you’re keen to have a punt on the first goal-kicker, I’d be looking at either Pavlich ($9) or Mayne ($11).


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